Iran
An assessment by U.S. spy agencies concludes that Iran is prepared to launch terrorist attacks inside the United States, highlighting new risks as the Obama administration escalates pressure on Tehran to halt its alleged pursuit of an atomic bomb. – Washington Post
Resource: Read the 2012 Worldwide Threat Assement of the US Intelligence Community (PDF)
In the calculus of predicting the political outcomes of the Arab Spring upheavals, some American officials and political analysts see the possible downfall of Mr. Assad as an event that could further undermine Iran as its economy reels under the sanctions imposed to get Tehran to suspend its nuclear program. – New York Times
Iran said Tuesday that a team of United Nations nuclear inspectors visiting since the weekend had concluded “constructive and positive” talks with Iranian officials, with further discussions planned at an unspecified date. – New York Times
An Iranian opposition group has called for silent rallies to be held in Tehran and other Iranian cities on February 14, accusing the government of wasting the country’s interests and resources. – Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty
The Navy’s biggest amphibious exercise in a decade, Bold Alligator, is not specifically designed to counter Iranian threats in the Persian Gulf. But it comes awfully close, according to two senior service officials. – AOL Defense
Two Democratic lawmakers are introducing legislation calling for further sanctions against Iran in an attempt to stop the country’s nuclear program. – DEFCON Hill
Iran is feeling the bite from economic sanctions imposed over its nuclear program, which is capable of producing a weapon although Iranian leaders have not yet decided to do so, top intelligence chiefs told Congress on Tuesday. – Reuters
South Korea and Japan will soon meet U.S. officials in Washington to ask how much oil they can import from Iran under new sanctions that leave the Asian nations with few alternative sources for energy, government officials said Wednesday. – Reuters
Saudi Arabia’s oil production appears to be “ramping up” and can fill some of the demand shortfalls caused by sanctions on Iranian exports, CIA Director David Petraeus said on Tuesday. – Reuters
Eli Lake reports: The U.S. intelligence community is worried that mysterious assassinations and bombings aimed at Iran’s nuclear program may be spurring the Iranian leadership to pursue attacks inside the United States, according to current and former U.S. officials. – The Daily Beast
Editorial: Mr. Clapper’s testimony comes as Defense Secretary Leon Panetta is warning that Iran is about a year away from having a nuclear bomb. So here’s a question to those who oppose military strikes on Iran: If the regime is prepared to stage terrorist strikes in America when they don’t have a bomb, what will they be capable of when they do have one? – Wall Street Journal (subscription required)
Syria
The battle over Syria moved to the United Nations on Tuesday with Western powers and much of the Arab world confronting Russia and its allies in the Security Council over their refusal to condemn the Syrian government for its violent suppression of popular protests. – New York Times
Hundreds of government troops controlled the mostly deserted streets of this suburban area east of Damascus on Tuesday, crouching behind sandbags and sternly manning checkpoints. After a week of fighting, the army defectors who had been challenging them have fled to the countryside, hundreds of young men have been arrested, and many families have left. – Washington Post
Following is a draft of the proposed United Nations Security Council resolution concerning Syria, as it was circulated among diplomats on Tuesday afternoon and provided to The New York Times. – New York Times
[N]early a year into the Arab spring’s longest and most complex uprising, Syria is sliding into a militarised conflict that looks increasingly like a civil war. – Financial Times
Russia signaled on Wednesday it would veto a draft U.N. resolution calling on Syrian President Bashar al-Assad to step down unless it explicitly ruled out military intervention in the bloodshed touched off by protests against his rule. – Reuters
Syria’s rebels may have been driven back from Damascus by President’s Bashar al-Assad’s army, yet they have taken heart from seizing territory and some even hope it might tempt foreign troops in to help. – Reuters
Colum Lynch reports: Simply put, many of the 166 Arab observers parachuted into Syria on Dec. 24 to document the widening violence were utterly incapable of enduring the rigors of life in a country roiled by social upheaval and conflict, according to an internal account of their work. – Turtle Bay
Fouad Ajami writes: The sun has set on the Soviet empire, but Mr. Putin stands guard, with a “philosophy” of his own—order secured by a strongman. Russia stood idly by as tyrants such as Tunisia’s Zine El Abidine Ben Ali and Egypt’s Hosni Mubarrak fell. But in the Libyan case it stepped out of the way at the U.N. Security Council, and its abstention gave the Western democracies the space and a warrant to unseat Moammar Gadhafi. Syria gives Russia a chance to correct for the error it made. – Wall Street Journal (subscription required)
Egypt
The Muslim Brotherhood flexed its muscles here on Tuesday as hundreds of its young members linked arms to block a protest march from reaching Parliament while its lawmakers inside dominated the selection of leaders for legislative committees. – New York Times
A little over a year ago, on the eve of the revolution that ousted Egyptian autocrat Hosni Mubarak, Hisham Kassem was poised to launch the Arab world’s first independently owned multimedia news company. But the revolution failed to redeem its promise of full democracy, press freedoms deteriorated, the economy tanked, and Kassem’s shareholders abandoned him…Kassem, who during the twilight of the Mubarak regime did as much as anyone to create pockets of oxygen for hard-hitting journalism, says he is confident that his Egyptian shareholders will return from the sidelines once the country stabilizes politically. – Washington Post
The top Egyptian official in the United States is hoping for a quick resolution to a high-profile standoff over the fate of several Americans barred from leaving Egypt, including the son of Transportation Secretary Ray LaHood. – Politico
Egypt’s justice minister said on Tuesday he had sent back a letter from the U.S. ambassador that asked for an end to a travel ban on Americans being investigated for alleged illegal funding of pro-democracy groups. – Reuters
Editorial: The regime’s calculation has always been that it can get away with such outrages because U.S. policymakers will conclude they can’t afford a rupture in relations with Egypt. But if such a break is to be avoided, the generals must be disabused of the notion that U.S. military aid is inviolate. – Washington Post
Yemen
Gunmen riddled the car of Yemen’s information minister with bullets as he left a cabinet meeting in the capital on Tuesday but he escaped the assassination attempt unhurt, an aide said. – Reuters
Bahrain
Fourteen jailed opposition figures in Bahrain have gone on hunger strike ahead of the February 14 anniversary of a failed pro-democracy uprising, activists said on Tuesday, and a government official said he favored releasing some of the men. – Reuters
Libya
A Libyan militia leader has begun legal action against a former senior British intelligence chief whom he accuses of playing a key role in illegally returning him to Libya to be jailed and tortured under Muammar Gaddafi, his London-based lawyers said. – Reuters
Iraq
U.N. officials said Tuesday that conditions at a new camp for Iranian dissidents in Iraq meet international standards and that they had asked the Iraqi government to prepare to transport the exiles to the site. – Washington Times
Iraq’s female civil servants are up in arms over a new government directive telling them to wear “modest” clothing. – Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty
Iraq’s parliament reconvened Tuesday after Sunni-backed lawmakers ended their boycott to protest alleged persecution of Sunni officials, a development that could restore some stability in the war-ravaged country. – Associated Press
Israel
[O]ver the past two weeks Palestinians have been taking to the streets here and in other West Bank cities to denounce Mr. Fayyad, protesting soaring prices and recently approved tax increases. The tax changes have proved so unpopular that Mr. Fayyad has suspended their enactment until mid-February, pending the outcome of talks to resolve the matter. – New York Times
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu was re-elected chairman of the ruling conservative Likud Party in a primary election Tuesday. The move secures Netanyahu’s position as the party’s candidate for the premiership in Israel’s next general elections – LA Times’ World Now
Asia
Afghanistan
The anticipated withdrawal of most international forces is still two years away, but already Afghans who have depended on the decade-old foreign presence for their livelihoods are feeling tremors as the first troops leave and spending and aid money dries up. Many fear that the rumblings could be a harbinger of far worse things to come. – New York Times
The Obama administration may be sugarcoating its public assessments of the situation in Afghanistan even as analysts privately predict a gloomy future for that country, Senate Intelligence Committee Chairwoman Dianne Feinstein argued at a hearing Tuesday. – Politico
The United States last year airdropped a record amount of supplies to remote outposts throughout Afghanistan, reflecting dramatic changes in the accuracy of aerial resupply missions that is key to the counterinsurgency campaign, the U.S. military said. – USA Today
A representative from the Hizb-i-Islami militant group has confirmed talks are in progress with representatives from the U.S. and Afghan governments as well as military officials from the U.S. and the International Security Assistance Force (ISAF) – Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty
Less than 25 percent of Afghans say the national police are now strong enough to handle security without international forces’ help, but three-quarters believe they will be ready by the 2014 NATO handover, according to a U.N. survey released Tuesday. – Associated Press
The Taliban in Afghanistan said on Wednesday they would not agree to a U.S. demand for a ceasefire as a condition for peace talks, but would not comment on a U.S. military report that they were set to retake the country when foreign troops left. – Reuters
U.S. intelligence officials acknowledged Tuesday that the United States may release several Afghan Taliban prisoners from the military prison at Guantanamo Bay, Cuba, as an incentive to bring the Taliban to peace talks. – Associated Press
The U.S. military said in a secret report the Taliban, backed by Pakistan, are set to retake control of Afghanistan after NATO-led forces withdraw from the country, raising the prospect of a major failure of western policy after a costly war. – Reuters
Saudi Arabia is reluctant to host talks between the Afghan government and the Taliban without concessions from the Islamist movement including renouncing its ties to al Qaeda, sources in Riyadh and Kabul said on Tuesday. – Reuters
Pakistan
A spokesman for the NATO-led coalition on Wednesday confirmed the existence of a report that summarizes the views of Taliban detainees who said that they are winning the war thanks to cooperation from some Afghan government officials and soldiers with active support from Pakistan’s intelligence service. – New York Times
A classified NATO military report obtained in Afghanistan by news organizations says Pakistan’s secret services are helping Taliban in directing attacks against foreign troops in Afghanistan. – Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty
Received wisdom states that the military – which has long backed the Taliban and allied Haqqani network – will only allow insurgents to talk on its terms. That may still be Pakistan’s intent, but its security hierarchy has been playing a relatively supportive role in the latest US moves to contact the Taliban – not least by declining to sabotage them. – Financial Times
Pakistani fighter jets bombed militant hideouts in tribal areas near the Afghan border Wednesday, officials said, capping two days of the fiercest fighting in weeks triggered by attacks by the Pakistani Taliban. – Reuters
China
Assailants in Egypt released 25 Chinese workers kidnapped on Tuesday, even as tensions appeared to rise between China and Sudan over Chinese held by rebels there. The abductions underscored a hard truth for Beijing: As China has extended its investment and presence into the world’s trouble spots, its people have become targets. – Wall Street Journal (subscription required)
The top Communist Party official in the Lhasa, the Tibetan capital, has urged security personnel to step up surveillance of monasteries and along pivotal roads through the region during what he warned would be a period of heightened social turbulence. – New York Times
A series of incidents in this city have highlighted escalating resentment among Hong Kongers toward the ever-growing presence of mainland Chinese in the city, a shift that has Beijing both incensed and worried. – Wall Street Journal (subscription required)
The People’s Republic of China and NATO hold little known high-level consultations, usually twice a year. “We have had regular exchanges with the Chinese. They are not frequent,” James Appathurai, NATO’s deputy assistant secretary general for political affairs and security policy said yesterday. – AOL Defense
Residents of a restive village in southern China held a symbolic election on Wednesday, a small step towards grassroots rights in a centre that is now a benchmark of rural defiance against land grabs and corruption that blight villages nationwide. – Reuters
India
After more than two decades of trying, France apparently has finally found a foreign customer for its Rafale fighter jet, reaching an $11 billion deal with India for 126 planes and a heavy technology transfer, the government announced Tuesday. – Washington Post
Sadanand Dhume writes: For the foreseeable future, India’s quest for security and prosperity is most effectively pursued in a predictable and stable U.S.-led international order. This means disagreeing with Washington where India’s concerns trump American ones—as, until recently, on Myanmar—but being sensitive to threats to global stability. In short, India ought to bolster U.S.-led sanctions on Iran instead of balking at them. – Wall Street Journal Asia (subscription required)
Central Asia
The Obama administration waived a ban on military assistance to Uzbekistan in a move to bolster ties with a nation that is part of a vital supply line to Afghanistan, but was cut off from aid because of alleged human-rights violations. – Wall Street Journal (subscription required)
U.S. Assistant Secretary of State for South and Central Asian Affairs Robert Blake says Kazakhstan’s promises to reform its political system and uphold human rights remain “largely unmet.” – Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty
The state of emergency that was imposed in mid-December in the western Kazakh town of Zhanaozen has been lifted. – Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty
Koreas
A senior American diplomat said on Wednesday that Washington was “open to diplomacy” with the new leadership emerging in North Korea following the death of Kim Jong-il but wanted Pyongyang to improve ties with South Korea first. – New York Times
Southeast Asia
Myanmar President Thein Sein has denied his country is trying to obtain nuclear weapons from North Korea, describing allegations of a covert program as “unfounded”. – AFP
While [Suu Kyi] is widely admired at home, figures in her own movement have criticized her as too dogmatic, inflexible or arrogant – accusations amplified by state media under the former military junta which handed power to a nominally civilian parliament in March. – Reuters
Analysis: The high court acquittal in January of the [Malaysian] opposition’s only true unifying figure has given the three-party alliance a formidable campaigner in national elections expected within months, adding to its momentum after historic gains in 2008 elections. – Reuters
Australia
Australian Defence Minister Stephen Smith flagged the possibility that 12 of the 14 Lockheed Martin Joint Strike Fighters Australia has committed to purchasing may be deferred, following uncertainty within the international program. – AFP
Moscow’s financial community has met the most recognizable figure of Russia’s nascent opposition movement—and some became spellbound. – WSJ’s Emerging Europe
The U.S. Secretary of State tried for twenty-four hours to get Mr. Lavrov on the phone to discuss a draft resolution on Syria, with no luck, according to the transcript of a State Department briefing. – WSJ’s Emerging Europe
Russia’s vaunted intelligentsia had been largely pliant since Putin rose to power over a decade ago. But in recent months, musicians, writers, actors, and television personalities have joined a newly politicized urban professional class at the vanguard of a new protest movement. – Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty
Winning Russia’s March presidential election could be the easy part for Prime Minister Vladimir Putin, who has called for a “decisive tax maneuver” to put the country’s increasingly oil-dependent public finances on a more sustainable footing. – Reuters
Ukraine
Another onetime political ally of Ukraine’s jailed former Prime Minister Yulia Tymoshenko faces charges in a case that is likely to feed international outcry over what critics say is a political witch-hunt under President Viktor Yanukovych. – Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty
Georgia
Georgian President Mikhail Saakashvili declined Tuesday to rule out becoming prime minister, saying he does not want to turn himself into a “lame duck” with nearly two years left in his term. – Washington Times
Hungary
As membership in the E.U. becomes ever more a dour pledge to cut spending while opening borders to economic competition, anti-E.U. politicians in many countries have surged in popularity, capitalizing on the anxieties of voters who see dimming hope for the future. Hungary’s Prime Minister Viktor Orban has been at the front of the pack, passing electoral and economic revisions that critics say are far outside of European norms but that he says put his country’s interests first. – Washington Post
NATO
After more than 15 years, NATO will finally grant approval to buy five Global Hawk Block 40s to help plug the gaps in the alliance’s intelligence, reconnaissance and surveillance that grew so glaring during the Libya operation. – AOL Defense
European Union
European Union nations must increasingly pool their military resources, especially as individual members keep trimming their budgets and the U.S reshapes its military strategy to focus on regions beyond Europe, the bloc’s top defense officials said Tuesday. – Associated Press
Americas
Rushing to defend General David Petraeus in [yesterday]’s Senate Intelligence Committee hearing, Senators Dianne Feinstein (D-CA) and Kent Conrad (D-ND) criticized the Los Angeles Times and its sources for hiding behind “anonymous complaints.” – Politico
The American public may finally bear witness to some, but probably not all, of the postmortem images of Osama bin Laden taken on the night he was killed in Pakistan. – The Atlantic Wire
Josh Rogin reports: Last month, Barack Obama’s administration resisted provisions codifying the right to detain prisoners indefinitely, arguing that putting such language into law was unnecessary and redundant. Now, the administration is using those very provisions to defend its detention of a suspected al Qaeda militant in federal courts. – The Cable
Canada
Canada has expelled two more Russian diplomats following the arrest earlier this month of a Canadian soldier charged with leaking secrets to a foreign entity, a newspaper reported Jan. 31. – AFP
Caribbean
Cubans paid almost 20 percent more for food in 2011 as economic reforms, reduced imports and stagnating farm production touched off price inflation at the country’s many produce markets. – Reuters
Former Haitian dictator Jean Claude “Baby Doc” Duvalier should be tried for torture, rape and killings committed during his rule, not merely on corruption charges as proposed by a Haitian judge, the United Nations human rights office said on Tuesday. – Reuters
Falklands
Britain said Jan. 31 it was sending a state-of-the-art warship to the Falklands Islands, but insisted the deployment was purely routine, despite rising tensions over their sovereignty. Ministry of Defence officials said the decision to send HMS Dauntless was long planned. – AFP
A British minister will travel to the Falkland Islands in June to take part in commemoration of the 30th anniversary of Britain’s recapture of the islands from occupying Argentine troops, a visit that could rile Buenos Aires. – Reuters
Africa
South Sudan
South Sudan’s chief negotiator has rejected African Union-backed proposals that could see it pay up to $6.5bn to Sudan in the latest attempt to break a vicious deadlock between the two over sharing oil revenues. – Financial Times
Josh Rogin reports: Responding to a call from advocacy groups, Mitt Romney’s campaign has released a statement promising to protect “innocents” and prosecute human rights abuses by the Khartoum government in Sudan and what is now South Sudan. – The Cable
