Iran
Iran signaled on Tuesday that it was unwilling to grant a request by international nuclear inspectors for unfettered access to a restricted military complex that they suspect may house a chamber designed to test explosives used in atomic weapons triggers. – New York Times
President Obama’s claim that he would use military force to stop Iran from developing a nuclear weapon isn’t backed up by his track record of avoiding such unilateral action in international crises, national security analysts say. – Washington Times
President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad of Iran appeared before the country’s Parliament on Wednesday to be quizzed by lawmakers on issues including economic mismanagement, state media reported, the first interrogation of its kind since the 1979 Islamic revolution. – New York Times
Some beneficiaries of an Iranian government cash-subsidy program have been asked -– via a phone alert -– to voluntarily give up their checks because they are too “well off,” even as prices soar and purchasing power drops due to a recent currency devaluation. – LA Times’ World Now
A Washington think tank says it has identified the building at an Iranian military base where international inspectors suspect Iran may have conducted explosives tests connected with a possible nuclear weapons program. – CNN’s Security Clearance
Iranian-backed terror groups are strengthening their ties to transnational criminal groups in South America and are working to expand their influence in the region, according to a top U.S. general. – DEFCON Hill
The Russian daily “Kommersant” reports that at a meeting at the UN on March 12, U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton told her Russian counterpart Sergei Lavrov to inform Iran that it has one last chance to negotiate and avoid war. – Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty
The South African government plans to have alternatives to Iranian oil in place by the end of May as western powers tighten sanctions against the Islamic republic, the country’s energy minister said on Tuesday. – Financial Times
An Iranian arms broker arrested during a U.S. Homeland Security sting in 2007 was deported back to Iran on Tuesday after serving 4-1/2 years in custody, two American law enforcement officials said. – Reuters
Rob Sobhani suggests a Nowruz message to the Iranian people for President Obama: I understand that a main artery in Tehran was once named after American President Dwight Eisenhower. I hope to visit a free Iran someday soon, and when I do it is my hope that you name another major avenue in Tehran in recognition of our long friendship. As you go tomorrow to visit family and friends and do your Eid-deedanee, know that should you seek economic partnerships, we are ready to cooperate. Should you demand America’s support in any way, we will be with you. Should you rise against your government, this time, we will stand with you. – Wall Street Journal Europe (subscription required)
Lee Harris writes: The only reasonable course left to us is to respond with ad hoc measures to actions and initiatives taken by Iran, while fully aware that a wrong step on our part could have devastating consequences for the West and the world. Policy is a luxury of those who call the shots—and today it is Iran and not the West who is calling them. Furthermore, Iran is calling them quite well. Far from pursuing an irrational and suicidal policy, Iran is currently following a strategy of cunning and far-sighted self-aggrandizement. They would be crazy to stop now. – The Weekly Standard Blog
Syria
Emboldened by faltering diplomacy and a Russian pledge to keep supplying weapons, Syria’s armed forces maintained their assault on insurgent enclaves in several parts of the country on Wednesday , invading the city of Idlib in an expanded campaign to crush the year-old uprising against President Bashar al-Assad. – New York Times
President Bashar al-Assad of Syria should not delude himself that he can survive the Syrian uprising without significant reforms, the United Nations secretary general, Ban Ki-moon, said Tuesday. – New York Times
The scale of torture in Syria since an antigovernment uprising began a year ago amounts to crimes against humanity and is the worst the country has experienced in 30 years, says an Amnesty International report released Tuesday. – LA Times’ World Now
The Syrian government reportedly has been planting land mines along its borders, spurring outcry from human rights groups that say there is no justification for using the deadly, indiscriminate weapons. – LA Times’ World Now
Syrian President Bashar al-Assad, facing a one-year revolt against his rule, set parliamentary elections under his country’s new constitution for May 7, the parliament’s website said. – Reuters
Britain wants to see a transition of power to the opposition in Syria rather than a revolutionary overthrow of President Bashar al-Assad, Prime Minister David Cameron said late on Tuesday. – Reuters
Syrian government forces will not stop fighting or withdraw from positions unless rebel forces instantly mirror their move, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said on Tuesday, underscoring continued divisions between Moscow and the West. – Reuters
Michael Weiss and Ilhan Tanir write: [M]any of the arguments for non-intervention that have been invoked and recapitulated at the highest level of government are either unconvincing or they apply equally, if not more so, if the United States refuses to help hasten the fall of the Assad regime. – Henry Jackson Society
Paul Miller writes: Syria is precisely the sort of mission we should be able to do, but Obama’s decision that “U.S. forces will no longer be sized to conduct large-scale, prolonged stability operations” effectively takes it off the table. The fact that we lack the capacity and the will to act when it would be both in our own self-interest and in defense of humanitarian ideals is one of the most damning things that can be said about Obama’s defense strategy. That he is now asking for military options for Syria suggests he knows it. – Shadow Government
Peter Schuck writes: In conjunction with allies, we should announce that any Syrian civil or military official (whom we define as high-ranking) who defects to the Syrian opposition within a specified period of time, and who can demonstrate that he has persuaded other such officials to defect, will be granted temporary refuge in one of the allied countries until the regime is overthrown. At that point he must return to Syria to aid in its rebuilding. – Wall Street Journal (subscription required)
North Africa
[T]he most unpredictable variable in the race is [Amr Moussa’s] leading challenger, Abdel Moneim Aboul Fotouh, a former leader of the Muslim Brotherhood whose iconoclastic campaign is now attracting the support not only of young Islamists but also of a growing number of liberals, like Rabab el-Mahdi. – New York Times
The Sudanese military has been relentlessly bombing the Nuba Mountains since June, killing hundreds of civilians, trying to quash a dug-in rebel movement. At the faintest sound of approaching aircraft, many Nuban people scramble up the steep, stony mountainsides to take cover in caves. – New York Times
U.N. Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon said on Tuesday that Libyan authorities should address human rights violations after a U.N. report found both sides committed war crimes during last year’s conflict and that killing, torture and pillage were ongoing. – Reuters
Egypt’s Muslim Brotherhood said on Tuesday it recognized its demand to sack Prime Minister Kamal al-Ganzouri’s cabinet is unlikely to be heeded by the ruling generals but that it did not want a standoff with the army, toning down tough talk by some of its MPs. – Reuters
Eric Trager writes: [T]o avoid being trapped again as a pawn among Egypt’s squabbling parties, Washington should condition future economic aid to Egypt on an agreement by all parties to respect these interests. There is good reason to believe that this conditionality could work: Egypt is approaching bankruptcy, and Washington has unique leverage over Cairo through its influence in international financial institutions. – New York Times
Iraq
Here and in other towns, in the interplay among tribal chiefs, elected officials and security forces, a new Iraq is taking shape. It may be buttressed by new ideas of democracy, but it is still very much dominated by the centuries-old customs and swagger of tribal leaders, quick to welcome outsiders with offers of sweet chai and platters of kebab and chicken but capable of swift acts of justice that can supersede those of any court. – New York Times
Turkish warplanes launched a wave of air strikes on northern Iraq late on Tuesday, where they often target bases of Kurdish separatists, but there were no reports of casualties, witnesses and border guards said on Wednesday. – Reuters
Turkey
Turkish police fired tear gas and water cannon to disperse hundreds protesting on Tuesday after a court dropped a case against five people charged with killing 37 writers and liberals in a 1993 hotel fire set by Islamist rioters. – Reuters
Afghanistan
Defense Secretary Leon E. Panetta landed here Wednesday morning on an unannounced and tense trip, the first by a senior member of the Obama administration since an American soldier reportedly killed 16 Afghan civilians, mostly children and women. – New York Times
President Obama pledged on Tuesday that a thorough investigation would be conducted into the bloody rampage by an American soldier in Afghanistan. – New York Times
Suspected insurgents fired automatic weapons and rocket-propelled grenades Tuesday at a government delegation offering condolences to villagers in a district of Kandahar province where a U.S. soldier is accused of going on a shooting rampage. – Los Angeles Times
Two deadly explosions struck in southern Afghanistan on Wednesday, claiming at least nine lives in the second day of violence since an American soldier went on a killing spree that killed 16 civilians. – New York Times
A growing number of Afghans say they have come to see a quick U.S. pullout as the best of bad options, a shift in line with Americans’ increasing disapproval of the decade-long war. – Washington Post
Some Afghans are demanding its government forge a new pact that allows U.S. soldiers accused of crimes to be tried by Afghan courts as the U.S. military on Tuesday said it found probable cause against a soldier accused of murdering 16 civilians. – USA Today
Marine Corps aircraft will be used to support Afghan ground forces as sizeable numbers of U.S. and coalition infantry units withdraw from Helmand province throughout the coming year. – Military Times
The White House said on Tuesday it is not reviewing options for further U.S. troop withdrawals from Afghanistan in the aftermath of a shooting of 16 civilians there by a U.S. soldier. – Reuters
The Obama administration is only beginning to calculate the pace of troop withdrawals from Afghanistan beyond this summer, facing an endgame fraught with political risk and complicated by shocking setbacks like the alleged U.S. slaughter of Afghan civilians. – Associated Press
Defense Secretary Leon E. Panetta said Tuesday he was awaiting details from Marine Corps Gen. John R. Allen, the top commander in Afghanistan, on his plan for bringing home the remaining 23,000 troops sent to Afghanistan during the 2010 surge. – Associated Press
[H]ere in Helmand – the country’s main poppy province – the fear is that the gains of the last few years could be at risk and that the fledgling Afghan national army may struggle to take over security responsibilities. – Reuters
Analysis: The initial reaction, however, suggests that this crisis may well hew to the arc of other moments of brinkmanship in the U.S.- Afghan relationship: claims of irreparable damage and demands for profound change, followed by a grudging recognition in both capitals that the two governments have more reasons than not to stick with their previously agreed-upon strategy of fighting the Taliban, training the Afghan security forces and creating a semblance of civil administration across the country. – Washington Post
Editorial: In this context, it’s not surprising that Afghans show little tolerance for U.S. failures — whether it is this week’s shooting or the accidental burning of Korans. And it’s little wonder that most Americans favor withdrawing troops as quickly as possible. If it’s evident that the president won’t defend the war, and is focused on “winding down” rather than winning, why should anyone else support it? – Washington Post
Michael O’Hanlon and Bruce Riedel write: Afghanistan policy is in crisis, at least in the United States. With Osama bin Laden now dead, some are wondering whether it’s time to declare this mission accomplished — or with Afghanistan so troubled, perhaps it’s mission impossible? In fact, it is mission incomplete: The Afghanistan mission is going worse than we had all hoped, but better than many understand. With patience and perseverance, we can still struggle to a tolerable outcome. – Foreign Policy
Pakistan
U.S. drone aircraft struck twice in Pakistan’s unruly tribal regions along the border with Afghanistan on Tuesday, killing 15 suspected militants, including two senior militant commanders, security and intelligence officials said. – Reuters
A top Pakistani government body said that China’s largest bank is backing away from a long-running plan to build a gas pipeline from Iran to Pakistan, a project that the United States has strongly opposed. – Reuters
Central Asia
One of Kyrgyzstan’s top defense officials told Defense Secretary Leon E. Panetta on Tuesday that a crucial United States air base here should have “no military mission” when its lease expires a little more than two years from now. The request creates a potential hurdle to American plans to withdraw from Afghanistan in 2014. – New York Times
China
Prime Minister Wen Jiabao issued a sharper and more urgent call on Wednesday for political change in China, warning that the nation risks a return to the chaos of the Cultural Revolution unless the ruling Communist Party overhauls its leadership structure and clears the way for economic reform. – New York Times
Even as the United States, the European Union and Japan jointly filed a trade case Tuesday against China over its export restrictions on strategic rare earth metals, many specialists could not help wondering whether it was too little and too late for Western and Japanese manufacturers. – New York Times
Beijing’s tough defense of its rare-earths export quotas is expected to escalate trade disputes over the minerals and spur mining investments—although China has strengths in the industry that are potentially long-lasting. – Wall Street Journal (subscription required)
Southeast Asia
A major terrorist linked to Al Qaeda who the Philippine military maintains was killed last month probably escaped alive, a senior Malaysian police official said. – New York Times
Communist-ruled Vietnam has jailed eight ethnic Hmong men for up to 30 months for participating in what authorities allege was a millenarian uprising in a remote northern valley last year. – Financial Times
Human rights groups have called for renewed international pressure on Sri Lanka to investigate allegations of serious crimes during its war with the Tamil Tigers. – Associated Press
Russia
What happened on the night of March 9 in a jail in a Kazan suburb isn’t such a rare occurrence. But what happened next might be a sign of changing times in Russia, as President Dmitry Medvedev’s long-simmering efforts to reform the country’s police finally gain traction. – Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty
A Russian opposition leader has been summoned to appear at Moscow City police headquarters along with four of his associates, raising fears that this could signal a crackdown on political dissent in the wake of protests that broke out in December. – Financial Times
Cliff Kupchan writes: Barring an unlikely confluence of crises, Putin will complete his new term. But even a flicker of doubt about his ability to last six more years shows how profoundly Russia has changed. – New York Times
Vladimir Pozner writes: It is far too early to state that Putin has gotten the message and will be less authoritarian and more democratic in his third term. But one should never underestimate the Russians, who, as the proverb says, are slow to hitch up their horses, but move very fast. – New York Times
Western Europe
A French presidential election that just days ago seemed to be headed toward a clear victory for the Socialist challenger, François Hollande, on Tuesday looked to be transforming into a horse race, with a respected opinion poll showing President Nicolas Sarkozy pulling into a virtual dead heat with his rival for the first time. – New York Times
Foreign leaders always strive to appear neutral in American elections. But sometimes their actions betray their real feelings. That may be the case with the visit this week by British Prime Minister David Cameron. Much to the consternation of conservatives on both sides of the Atlantic, Cameron seems to be siding with President Barack Obama, despite a pretty rocky start to the incumbent’s stewardship of the famed “special relationship” between the two longtime allies. – National Journal
David Cameron has begun a three-day visit to the US to map out an “endgame” for western intervention in Afghanistan, admitting that the country will still be poor and not “a perfect democracy” when troops leave. – Financial Times
NATO
Stephen Flanagan writes: NATO’s Chicago Summit will provide allied leaders an opportunity to demonstrate that the transatlantic relationship remains vibrant in the face of economic constraints and that the alliance is implementing a sustainable strategy for transition in Afghanistan and addressing emerging threats. European governments could answer U.S. concerns about diminishing military capabilities by making a sustained commitment to NATO’s Smart Defense and other initiatives needed to realize a credible and effective NATO military posture for 2020. Now is the time for Obama and Cameron to draw up their campaign plan for Chicago. – AOL Defense
United States of America
The White House’s consideration of an early pull out from Afghanistan will only embolden anti-American sentiment in the country and opens the door to terror groups in the region, a top Senate Republican said on Tuesday. – DEFCON Hill
Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.) said he supports the Obama administration’s plans to gradually withdraw troops from Afghanistan, which has come under heavy scrutiny on both the left and right in recent days after an Army staff sergeant killed 16 Afghan civilians Sunday. – DEFCON Hill
Because of President Obama’s policies, U.S. troops are “stretched to the breaking point,” Mitt Romney said on Tuesday in criticizing Obama’s handling of the war in Afghanistan. – National Journal
Republican presidential contender Newt Gingrich said Monday that, given the current conditions in Afghanistan he doesn’t “see a path ahead” for reform within the country. – The Hill
A House Democrat is pressing the Pentagon to provide details on whether the Army soldier accused of killing unarmed Afghan civilians earlier this week suffered from traumatic brain injury. – DEFCON Hill
Josh Rogin reports: Not all Republican politicians are gung ho about intervening to stop the bloodshed in Syria, but one senior Republican, Sen. Bob Corker (R-TN), isn’t even convinced the revolution is a real democratic movement. – The Cable
Josh Rogin reports: As troops loyal to President Bashar al-Assad stormed the opposition-held city of Idlib Tuesday, Sen. Scott Brown (R-MA) became the fourth U.S. senator to openly call for U.S. military intervention in Syria … before he partially walked back those comments in an interview with The Cable. – The Cable
North America
Canada’s associate defense minister said on March 13 that one of the most ardent supporters of the F-35 program could back out of a multi-billion purchase of the fighter jets. – AFP
Support has fallen for the favorite to be Mexico’s next president, Enrique Pena Nieto, of the opposition Institutional Revolutionary Party (PRI), even though his main rival is struggling to gain ground, a poll showed on Tuesday. – Reuters
Mali
Roger Kaplan writes: Although Mali has a long history of unrest in its wild north, it is impossible not to worry that the conjunction of armed conflicts across the Sahel, including notably the extreme violence in Nigeria’s northern states, signals something more than a dress rehearsal for the opening of a broad new front in the global wars of revolutionary Islam, wars that are directed as much against Muslim populations in fragile societies as against the West. – The Weekly Standard Blog
Zimbabwe
Impala Platinum Holdings Ltd., one of the world’s biggest platinum producers, agreed Tuesday to heed government demands and transfer majority ownership in its Zimbabwe unit to local blacks, or “indigenuous” people, a move that sets a precedent for other foreign companies under pressure to meet the country’s empowerment law. – Wall Street Journal (subscription required)
Australian special forces have been operating in several African countries over the past year gathering intelligence on terrorist activities, according to a March 13 report. – AFP
Central Africa
Thomas Lubanga, a rebel leader from the Congo, was found guilty on Tuesday of recruiting and enlisting boys and girls under the age of 15 and using them to make war. A panel of judges at the International Criminal Court issued their ruling in a brief session at the tribunal’s headquarters in The Hague, the first verdict issued by the court since it began its work 10 years ago. – New York Times
The Ugandan government said on Tuesday that the Democratic Republic of Congo is frustrating U.S.-backed Ugandan troops in the hunt for rebels, in the latest deterioration of relations between the neighboring states. – Wall Street Journal
Fugitive warlord Joseph Kony and leaders of his LRA have been chased out of Democratic Republic of Congo to the neighboring Central African Republic and no longer pose a threat in Congo, a Congolese general said on Tuesday. – Reuters
South Sudan
Tribal conflict, financial crisis and a humanitarian emergency are threatening stability in South Sudan, only eight months after the world’s newest nation gained independence. – Washington Times
Sudanese President Omar al-Bashir will make his first visit to South Sudan since the country gained independence last July, officials said on Tuesday, as both sides seek to resolve a bitter and costly dispute over oil. – Reuters
