Iran
Iranian oil stored at sea is building up due to international sanctions, but the measures are also proving a boon to the country’s homegrown tanker operator, officials in Tehran said Tuesday, underscoring the mixed effect of mounting pressure on Iran. – Wall Street Journal (subscription required)
Israel’s military chief said he does not believe Iran will decide to produce an atomic bomb, describing its leadership as “very rational” in an interview published on Wednesday. – Reuters
Iran and major nations have a “historic opportunity” to settle their decade-old nuclear dispute, but requiring the Islamic state to stop higher-grade uranium enrichment would be discriminatory, Tehran’s former chief nuclear negotiator said. – Reuters
Syria
Three members of the Syrian security services used to suppress antigovernment dissent were killed in and around Damascus on Tuesday, according to the official media and activists, one of several indications that the cease-fire arranged under United Nations auspices continued to wobble. In addition, a small bomb exploded outside an Iranian culture and travel center in the center of Damascus, the capital, wounding four people but not causing much damage. – New York Times
Special emissary Kofi Annan told the U.N. Security Council on Tuesday in a closed-door session that an expanding U.N. monitoring mission still stands a chance of calming the violence in Syria, despite reports of a spike in killings, including an alleged government attack on civilians in the town of Hama shortly after U.N. observers had visited the town. – Washington Post
Syria’s remaining cash reserves are quickly dwindling as the country’s anti-government uprising marks its 13th month, according to intelligence officials and financial analysts who describe a steady hollowing-out of the country’s economy in the face of sanctions. – Washington Post
Secretary of State Hillary Clinton said Tuesday that it is “absolutely deplorable” if reports are true and Syrian forces are harassing, arresting and possibly killing civilians who have approached United Nations observers in the country. – CNN’s Security Clearance
The White House denies asking Saudi Arabia and other Middle Eastern allies to opt against providing weaponry to Syria’s opposition forces. – DOTMIL
The [regime’s] cyberwar against Qatar is part of escalating efforts by Bashar al-Assad, Syria’s president, to paint the revolt against him as a geopolitical struggle by wealthy Gulf monarchies bent on Syria’s destruction, rather than a brutal attempt to put down a popular uprising . – Financial Times
Syria has refused at least one U.N. military observer because of his nationality and has made clear it will not allow in U.N. staff from any country in the “Friends of Syria” group, the U.S. envoy to the United Nations said on Tuesday. – Reuters
Bashar al-Assad’s international allies must realize the Syrian president is “finished” and persuade him to step down to avoid further bloodshed, Tunisian President Moncef al-Marzouki said in a newspaper interview published on Tuesday. – Reuters
Fouad Ajami writes: It is a waste of time—and of precious lives—to buy into a wishful diplomacy that maintains that a few hundred U.N. observers will ward off the evils of a merciless sectarian tyranny. – Wall Street Journal (subscription required)
Kurt Volker writes: What is missing, therefore, is not an understanding of the case for intervention, or even a means to intervene, but a “catalyst” that justifies and forces action. If that catalyst occurs, the US and others might act. And then America and its friends should ask themselves why they did not act sooner, and prevent the very catastrophe that spurred them into action. – Christian Science Monitor
Egypt
Egypt’s electoral commission disqualified another well-known presidential candidate Tuesday, setting up a three-way race whose outcome could decide the direction of the country’s year-old revolution. – Washington Times
An Egyptian ministry has rejected the applications for registration of eight American nonprofit groups, state media reported, in the government’s first action on the status of foreign-backed nonprofit groups since its criminal prosecution of three American-backed organizations set off a crisis in relations with Washington this year. – New York Times
The decorum of diplomacy has devolved into embarrassing headlines and testy one-liners in the increasingly strained relations between Egypt and Israel. – Los Angeles Times
A court found Egypt’s most popular comic actor guilty on Tuesday of insulting Islam in roles in films mocking religious hypocrisy, alarming liberal-minded artists and intellectuals already anxious about the growing power of Islamists here after the ouster of President Hosni Mubarak. – New York Times
A leading Islamist candidate said on Tuesday he was confident he would win enough votes in Egypt’s first real presidential election to seal victory in the first round, and said anybody associated with Hosni Mubarak was unfit to lead. – Reuters
Egypt’s parliament overwhelmingly rejected the army-appointed cabinet’s plan to cut state spending on Tuesday, complicating the government’s efforts to secure IMF help to fight a balance of payments crisis. – Reuters
Gulf States
A senior Islamist in the United Arab Emirates has been detained in an apparent escalation of the Gulf state’s campaign against political Islam. – Financial Times
Hundreds of Egyptians protested outside the Saudi Embassy on Tuesday demanding the release of an Egyptian human rights lawyer detained in Saudi Arabia for allegedly insulting the kingdom’s monarch. – Associated Press
Analysis: Hardliners in Bahrain’s Saudi-backed Sunni Muslim ruling family may dig in their heels after a Formula One Grand Prix debacle that spotlighted a frustrated pro-democracy uprising instead of projecting an image of stability. – Reuters
Max Boot writes: It would be premature and counterproductive, as some suggest, to remove the Fifth Fleet from Bahrain, but we must do more to push for the type of reforms that can head off a future explosion. The examples to avoid are Iran in 1979 and Egypt in 2011: in both cases the U.S. gave carte blanche to dictators for years, making inevitable a revolution harmful to American strategic interests. Difficult actions are needed now in Bahrain to avoid a potential catastrophe down the road. – Commentary’s blog, Contentions
North Africa
Libya is pressing ahead with preparations to finish off a stockpile of chemical warfare materials left behind by the deposed Muammar Qadhafi regime, a spokesman for the Organization for the Prohibition of Chemical Weapons said on Tuesday – Global Security Newswire
The United States has given Tunisia $32 million in military aid since a popular uprising 16 months ago, U.S. Army General Carter F. Ham said April 24. – AFP
Yemen
Yemeni government forces have recaptured a strategic southern town from Al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula, killed more than 50 militant fighters in the last few days and forced the resignation of an air force commander who had resisted the political and security aims of the Arab country’s new leadership, diplomatic sources and news agencies reported Tuesday. – LA Times’ World Now
The United States and Yemen pledged Tuesday to step up high-level cooperation in the fight against al-Qaida as government forces punched their way into the heart of a city long held by militants in the Arab nation’s lawless south. – Associated Press
Israel
Israel announced Tuesday that it has legalized three unauthorized Jewish outposts in the West Bank, a move that Palestinians and anti-settlement activists condemned as a step toward creating the first new settlements in more than a decade. – Washington Post
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu voiced support on Tuesday for the first time for Palestinians to establish a contiguous state, saying their future country should not look like “Swiss cheese”. – Reuters
Turkey
[T]he movement’s stealthy expansion of power — as well as its tactics and lack of transparency — is now drawing accusations that Mr. Gulen’s supporters are using their influence in Turkey’s courts and police and intelligence services to engage in witch hunts against opponents with the aim of creating a more conservative Islamic Turkey. Critics say the agenda is threatening the government’s democratic credentials just as Turkey steps forward as a regional power. – New York Times
Afghanistan
A U.S.-funded girls school about a mile away was shuttered by insurgents in 2007, two years after it opened. They warned residents that despite a new government in Kabul and an international aid effort focused on female education, the daughters of Spina were to stay home. For a while, they all did. Then two brothers, among the few literate men in the village, began quietly teaching math, reading and writing to their female relatives in a living room on the edge of town. They wanted to keep the classes small, they said, to stay off the Taliban’s radar. That turned out to be impossible. – Washington Post
While a new deal with Afghanistan starts to spell out the U.S. presence after the bulk of troops leave in 2014, a top U.S. general said he has a good idea of what skills will be needed to ensure the country remains stable. – CNN’s Security Clearance
The fatal crash of an Army Blackhawk helicopter in southern Afghanistan last Tuesday may have been caused by enemy fire, according to recent reports. – DEFCON Hill
FBI director Robert Mueller visited Yemen on Tuesday, pledging to help quell an Islamist insurgency, as security and government sources said a drone had killed a prominent al Qaeda leader linked to an attack on a French oil tanker. – Reuters
As of Tuesday, at least 1,812 members of the U.S. military have died in Afghanistan as a result of the U.S.-led invasion that began in late 2001, according to an Associated Press count. – Associated Press
Josh Rogin reports: This past weekend, Rep. Dana Rohrabacher (R-CA) was denied entry into Afghanistan last weekend due to objections from Afghan President Hamid Karzai. Today, in an interview with The Cable, Rohrabacher recounted the episode, his longstanding feud with Karzai, and the personal intervention of Secretary of State Hillary Clinton that kept him from flying to Kabul. – The Cable
Pakistan
A Pakistani lawyer who is suing the CIA to stop its campaign of lethal drone attacks against top terrorists there has been granted a visa to enter the United States to publicize his case. – Washington Times
Pakistan successfully tested an improved intermediate-range ballistic missile early on Wednesday, according to a statement by the Pakistani military. – New York Times
Even a limited, regional nuclear war, such as one between archrivals India and Pakistan, would cause major changes in the global climate and likely starve a billion people, according to new research. – Washington Times
A bomb exploded inside the busiest railway station in this eastern Pakistani city late Tuesday afternoon, killing at least two people and injuring 27, police officials said. – New York Times
U.S. commanders have come to accept there is a limit to the steps Pakistani leaders are willing to take toward halting the flow of drugs and bomb-making materials in Afghanistan, says one key general. – US News and World Report
Pakistan‘s Supreme Court is expected to deliver its verdict later this week in a contempt case against the prime minister that could see him lose his job, the premier’s lawyer said Tuesday. – Associated Press
Part of a carrot and stick approach to battling militancy in the strategic U.S. ally, the aim is to cleanse minds of extremist thoughts through vocational training, and turn men like Gul into productive citizens who support the state. The success of the program will ultimately hinge, however, on the ability of the government, widely seen as incompetent and corrupt, to help the de-radicalization graduates find jobs. – Reuters
Pakistani Finance Minister Abdul Hafeez Shaikh writes: We have witnessed the loss of more than $100 billion of foreign investment, a tightening of our financial markets, and a freeze on the progress of many social programs. But that trend has now dramatically reversed, and there is an emerging story of a new Pakistan strategically located at the crossroads of the world’s most dynamic economies, ready to take its place as a critical emerging market. – Wall Street Journal (subscription required)
China
China has stepped up its campaign to clamp down on the Internet, which has emerged as a virtual town square for exchanging information about the Bo Xilai scandal and the nation’s biggest political upheaval in years. – Wall Street Journal
In his first public statement since the arrest of his mother on suspicion of murder and the ouster of his father from the leadership of the Chinese Communist Party, Harvard University student Bo Guagua said he is “deeply concerned about the events surrounding my family” and defended his own academic performance and lifestyle against allegations of debauchery and sloth. – Washington Post
North Korea
China’s export of a mobile missile launcher to North Korea was likely approved by Beijing’s communist government, possibly in response to U.S. arms sales to Taiwan, according to a think tank report made public Tuesday. – Washington Free Beacon
China on Wednesday issued a veiled warning to neighboring North Korea not to carry out what is widely expected to be an imminent nuclear test. – Reuters
Apparently new long-range ballistic missiles displayed at a North Korean military parade this month were mock-ups, according to two German experts who termed the exercise “a nice dog and pony show”. – AFP
Japan
Josh Rogin reports: The United States and Japan are nearing completion of a new basing agreement for U.S. troops in Okinawa, but three top senators want to make sure that Congress has a seat at the table before anything is set in stone. – The Cable
Tibet
FPI Director of Democracy and Human Rights Ellen Bork writes: The Chinese Communist party’s preoccupation with its leadership transition, expected to be made final next fall when Xi Jinping becomes general secretary, should not dissuade the U.S. from making a “strong intervention at the highest level” regarding Tibet, according to Lodi Gyari, who spoke yesterday at the Council on Foreign Relations. – The Weekly Standard Blog
South Asia
The disappearance of a leading opposition figure in Bangladesh has plunged the poor South Asian nation into a political crisis and threatens efforts to turn around its global image as a “basket case,” as former U.S. Secretary of State Henry Kissinger once famously put it. – Wall Street Journal (subscription required)
Burma
A senior Chinese diplomat said on Wednesday he hoped moves by the United States to re-engage with Myanmar were not aimed at Beijing, underscoring China’s concerns about influence in its strategically located neighbor and close economic partner. – Reuters
Analysis: A political stalemate preventing the long-awaited parliamentary debut of Myanmar’s pro-democracy leader Aung San Suu Kyi coincides with an apparent attempt by the powerful military to bolster its influence in the legislature. – Reuters
Vijay Nambiar writes: As the international community views events in Myanmar with hope and expectation, the question should not be “can it hold?” It should be, “what can we do to help?” – International Herald Tribune
Southeast Asia
In a landmark decision, the Supreme Court in the Philippines ruled unanimously on Tuesday to break up the rambling estate owned by the family of President Benigno S. Aquino III, parceling out land to more than 6,000 farmers and their families and removing a main obstacle to ending the oppressive plantation culture that has dominated the country for decades. – New York Times
The Philippines plans to seek counsel from the United States military over its two-week standoff with Chinese ships operating in the Scarborough Shoal, a new step in the simmering dispute. – LA Times’ World Now
Hundreds of American and Philippine troops waded ashore on Wednesday in a mock assault to retake a small island in energy-rich waters disputed with China, a drill Beijing had said would raise the risk of armed conflict. – Reuters
China did not start the current standoff in the South China Sea, a senior Chinese diplomat said on Wednesday, ahead of high-level talks with the Obama administration as tensions simmer between Beijing and the Philippines over the disputed waters. – Reuters
Thousands of riot police overwhelmed villagers in Vietnam who tried to block them from taking control of a disputed plot of land outside Hanoi on Tuesday in the second high-profile clash over property so far this year. – Reuters
Pavin Chachavalpongpun writes: Ms. Yingluck at least settled on a strategy with some hope of success. But until she can implement it properly—including pushing aside her brother and building a stronger consensus in Bangkok for change—the south will remain an intractable problem. – Wall Street Journal Asia (subscription required)
Russia
President Dmitry Medvedev pledged to expand political and economic freedoms in his valedictory address as president Tuesday. But even as he sought to defend his legacy, his authority is widely seen to be fading as he prepares to become prime minister under his far-more-powerful patron, Vladimir Putin. – Wall Street Journal (subscription required)
Prime Minister Vladimir V. Putin said Tuesday that he would step down as chairman of United Russia, the political party he has led since 2008, and hand the reins of the parliamentary majority to his protégé, President Dmitri A. Medvedev. – New York Times
A room full of top officials and leading finance professionals said corruption is currently the biggest problem facing Russia and said the country desperately needs to improve its investment climate. – WSJ’s Emerging Europe Real Time
Russian President Dmitry Medvedev vowed Tuesday to pursue his modernization agenda and implement political reforms enacted after massive street protests, after he shifts into the prime minister’s job. – Associated Press
Josh Rogin reports: A bill to sanction Russian human rights violators will not be taken up by the Senate Foreign Relations Committee this week after the Obama administration urged Senate Foreign Relations Committee Chairman John Kerry (D-MA) to keep it off the committee’s agenda, The Cable has learned. – The Cable
Paul Starobin writes: Americans might be tempted to assume—based on the Arab Spring–style protests that have recently taken place in Moscow—that the young people of Russia have turned completely against Putin. But the generation of Russians who form the backbone of the protests have political instincts that are actually quite complicated. – The New Republic
Ukraine
Ukraine’s jailed former prime minister, Yulia V. Tymoshenko, declared a hunger strike on Tuesday after what she said was an assault by prison guards that left her black and blue. – New York Times
United Kingdom
British police arrested five men on suspicion of terrorism offenses in Luton, a town northwest of London that has figured in previous terrorism episodes. – Wall Street Journal (subscription required)
NATO
The U.S. State Department announced on Monday there will be no meeting between Russia and NATO during next month’s high-level alliance meeting in Chicago, RIA Novosti reported – Global Security Newswire
United States of America
The Veterans Administration is exempt from the automatic cuts that could hit the discretionary budget in January 2013, the Office of Management and Budget said Monday. – DEFCON Hill
Dick Lugar may be a reservoir of knowledge, but the contention that he is hugely influential in the Senate is, at the least, debatable. – National Review Online
Henry Nau writes: The Obama-Romney contest will feature a sharp contrast between the chessboard view of the world held by Romney and the jigsaw-puzzle view Obama holds. The challenge for the man who wins the battle will be to find the right mix between the two—because if there isn’t one, our foreign policy will continue to suffer and America’s position in the world will continue to erode. – Commentary
Mexico
Mexican President Felipe Calderon on Tuesday gave an impassioned defense of free trade as Mexico waits for the United States and others to decide whether it will be allowed to join talks on a trade pact in the Asia-Pacific region. – Reuters
Venezuela
The Venezuelan government on Tuesday broadcast a video of President Hugo Chavez playing the European bowling game of bocce in Cuba in a new effort to quash rumors that he was dying of cancer while out of the country. – Reuters
Editorial: Mr. Bocaranda reported last week that Venezuelan and Cuban generals met in Cuba to decide on what to do if Mr. Chavez is unable to remain in office or compete in the election — and that a military coup was one option under discussion. Though unconfirmed, that all-too-plausible possibility underlines the urgency for Venezuela’s neighbors — and an inert Obama administration — to focus on the possibility that the country may be headed for a political breakdown and to do what they can to prevent it. As a start, they should encourage Mr. Chavez to disclose his condition. – Washington Post
West Africa
Nigeria lost $6.8bn because of corruption and mismanagement of its controversial fuel subsidy programme from 2009 to 2011, according to a report presented to parliament on Tuesday. – Financial Times
East Africa
As aerial bombardments continued in the border region between Sudan and South Sudan on Tuesday, the South Sudanese president, Salva Kiir, met with President Hu Jintao of China, a crucial friend to both nations, saying that Sudan had “declared war” on his country, a spokesman for the South said. – New York Times
The U.N. Security Council demanded on Tuesday that Sudan immediately stop airstrikes on South Sudan and will consider in the coming days what further steps to take to stop clashes between the east African neighbors spiraling into war. – Reuters
Southern Africa
[S]ince Zimbabwe started using the United States dollar as its currency in 2009, it has run into a surprising quandary. Once worth too little, money in Zimbabwe is now worth too much. – New York Times
The Africa National Congress has upheld the expulsion of Julius Malema, its militant youth leader, from South Africa’s ruling party after rejecting his appeal against disciplinary action. – Financial Times
Analysis: South Africa’s President Jacob Zuma is the favorite to win a second term to lead the ruling ANC in a race dominated by factional politics instead of policy reforms for Africa’s most powerful economy. – Reuters
