Iran
Iran’s announcement that it plans to build its first nuclear-powered submarine is stoking speculation it could serve as a pretext for the Islamic state to produce highly enriched uranium and move closer to potential atom bomb material. – Reuters
Iran and the United States might be talking up their readiness for war in the Gulf but beneath the rhetoric, all sides are appear keen to avoid conflict and prevent accidental escalation – at least for now. – Reuters
Meghan O’Sullivan writes: It is perhaps inevitable that as negotiations faltered last month, focus returned to sanctions and the new July 1 strictures. But a closer look at how sanctions work, and how the Iranians have reacted to economic pressure thus far, suggests caution, and should be a prompt to the international community to intensify its efforts to combine existing economic duress with other forms of pressure, if it hopes to see a shift in Tehran’s behavior. – Los Angeles Times
Syria
Opponents of President Bashar al-Assad of Syria met on Friday in Paris with their international sponsors, heartened by news reports that Brig. Gen. Manaf Tlass, a commander in the elite Republican Guards, and a member of the Damascus aristocracy, had fled the country and defected. – New York Times
A commander in Syria’s elite Republican Guards, who was a member of the Damascus aristocracy and a close friend and contemporary of President Bashar al-Assad, was reported on Thursday to have fled the country and defected. – New York Times
[F]ar fewer of the regime’s high civilian officials have abandoned the regime. That fact has complicated efforts by the Syrian opposition to persuade world powers that it has legitimate leaders in line should President Assad fall. – Wall Street Journal
WikiLeaks, the online leak group, said Thursday that it would begin releasing a cache of more than 2.4 million e-mails between Syrian politicians, government officials and companies dating from 2006 until March of this year. – New York Times
The bodies of two pilots shot down by Syria during a contested flight were recovered Thursday from the seabed and will be buried in a military funeral on Friday, Turkey said, in a development that is likely to further fuel debate in the country about the rapid deterioration of ties with Damascus. – Wall Street Journal
[L]iving conditions have become increasingly dire for some, especially in Tripoli, Lebanon’s second-largest city, where the Syrian opposition estimates that 20,000 refugees now live. – New York Times
Baghdad has begun to amass troops along the Syrian border amid reports that fighters from al Qaeda’s Iraqi faction are looking to gain a foothold in Syria. – DEFCON Hill
U.N. Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon will recommend that the Security Council keep the mandate of its Syria monitoring mission unchanged while temporarily reducing the number of unarmed military observers, diplomats said on Thursday. – Reuters
Syrian troops backed up by helicopters advanced on Thursday into the rebellious northern town of Khan Sheikhoun, activist residents said, one of many fronts being contested by forces loyal to President Bashar al-Assad and pro-democracy rebels. – Reuters
A unit of Italian defense technology group Finmeccanica sold sophisticated communications equipment to Syrian police as recently as February, an Italian weekly reported on Thursday, quoting emails published by Wikileaks. – Reuters
Switzerland said it was freezing arms exports to the United Arab Emirates (UAE) after a media report said a Swiss-made hand grenade originally shipped to the Gulf state had been found in Syria. – Reuters
NATO chief Anders Fogh Rasmussen on July 5 urged Syria to find a political solution to the country’s crisis and warned against any new incidents with Turkey after a plane was shot down. – AFP
Syrian President Bashar al-Assad said in an interview published on Thursday that he would have been toppled long ago like the shah of Iran if his people did not support him. – Reuters
North Africa
Libyans vote Saturday in their first chance to steer their country’s political future since Moammar Gadhafi seized power in 1969—and since the popular uprising that ousted the dictator nearly nine months ago. – Wall Street Journal (subscription required)
After a politically stagnant 42 years during which the only leadership option was Moammar Gaddafi and the only ideology was his Green Book, Libyans are dazzled, if a little befuddled, by the array of posters, pamphlets, radio commercials and even hot-air balloons festooning their cities and towns in the run-up to their first national election in nearly half a century. – Washington Post
[M]any Sudan experts are skeptical that Sudan’s government, led by President Omar Hassan al-Bashir, who seized power in a military coup in 1989, is about to fall. – New York Times
Sat between Egypt’s two top generals, newly elected Islamist President Mohamed Mursi oversaw a passing-out ceremony of military recruits on Thursday in a rigidly choreographed scene that could almost have been taken from the era of Hosni Mubarak. – Reuters
The fatal stabbing by men identified as Islamists of a young man as he walked with his fiancee has stirred fears among some Egyptians that zealots emboldened by the Muslim Brotherhood’s rise to power will seek to impose their customs on society. – Reuters
An Egyptian Islamist politician will face trial on public indecency charges after being caught in a compromising sexual act with a young woman in a parked car, the state news agency said on Thursday. – Reuters
Bahrain
An 11-year-old boy arrested on charges of taking part in street unrest in Bahrain must be monitored by authorities for a year, a juvenile court ruled on Thursday, in a case criticized by rights groups. – Reuters
Iraq
Michael Knights writes: The time to get Iraq back on track is now — before the bottom falls out of the security situation. A first step to resetting post-occupation U.S. policy on Iraq is to rebuild some of the situational awareness that has been lost in the last year. Arguing the facts about Iraq and relitigating the past is an analytical and political cul-de-sac. To take some heat out of the issue, all parties involved in the debate should try to look at 2012 as “Year Zero”: A moment when Iraq policy is viewed afresh, setting aside, as much as possible, the political debates of the past. Iraq should once again be viewed as one part of a broader U.S. strategy in the Middle East — just like any other country. – Foreign Policy
Israel
On one level, the questions shaking the Israeli political system this week are pragmatic: how many ultra-Orthodox men and Arab citizens should be drafted into the military or national service, over how many years and how should those who resist be penalized? But the debate over these details masks a more fundamental and fractious one about evolving identity in this still-young state, where a “people’s army” has long been a defining principle, and about the growing cleavage among its tribes. – New York Times
Digging up Yasser Arafat’s bones may offer the best shot at learning if the legendary Palestinian leader was poisoned, as many of his old comrades-in-arms claim, but Palestinian officials signaled Thursday they’re not rushing into an autopsy. – Associated Press
An Israeli journalist who drew on leaked army documents to report the alleged assassination of Palestinian militants, prompting a prosecution and debate about press freedom, was spared jail time in a plea bargain on Thursday. – Reuters
Victoria Coates writes: Given that Russia has significant leverage with both Syria and Iran, while the United States appears to have none, it may seem only prudent to celebrate an example of Russian-Israeli friendship at this juncture. Certainly Israel would prefer to ally with the successor to Washington, Lincoln and Reagan than with a man who considers Joseph Stalin a hero and the break-up of the Soviet Union a catastrophe. The monument at Netanya does not mean the US.-Israel alliance is irrevocably broken. But it is a tangible reminder that we need to take the responsibilities of that relationship seriously, or risk ceding the rights to another—and decidedly unfriendly—party. – The Weekly Standard Blog
Afghanistan
Senior international officials and Afghan leaders are meeting on Sunday in Tokyo to decide on long-term economic support for Afghanistan, amid an economic downturn that is testing the West’s commitment to the war-torn country. – Wall Street Journal (subscription required)
Afghan officials and their American backers made a small step this week toward securing the big-name Western foreign investment they have long sought for Afghanistan: Exxon Mobil is weighing a bid on a modest oil concession in the country’s north, Afghan officials and the company said Thursday. – New York Times
The Pentagon has retained its top propaganda contractor in Afghanistan for $60 million over the next year even as the company remains under criminal investigation by the military’s inspector general and its co-owner has been suspended from receiving military contracts. – USA Today
Even with the reopening of critical supply routes through Pakistan, the US military confronts a mammoth logistical challenge to wind down the war in Afghanistan, where it must withdraw nearly 90,000 troops and enormous depots of military equipment accumulated over the past decade. – Financial Times
Almost 10 percent of NGOs in Afghanistan — 175 in number — were ordered shut at the start of the year by the Economy Ministry after they failed to submit annual reports due to inefficiency, corruption and oversight. As a result, donations to Afghanistan’s NGOs have waned, raising concerns about their ability to keep operating when most NATO combat troops leave at the end of 2014. – Reuters
U.S. Ambassador to Afghanistan Ryan Crocker writes: Working alongside some of the most committed and determined people that Afghanistan and the United States have to offer has deeply enriched the last assignment I will take in the service of my country. It has left me confident about the future of their nation and ours. I have served in a lot of hard places, with a lot of very good people. None has been better than those I have been privileged to call my colleagues here. – Washington Post
Pakistan
The United States has lifted restrictions on roughly $2.5 billion in foreign aid to Pakistan following Islamabad’s decision to reopen critical military supply routes in the country to American and NATO forces. – DEFCON Hill
Senate defense hawk John McCain (R-Ariz.) praised Secretary of State Hillary Clinton’s diplomatic efforts to reopen vital military supply lines in Pakistan, ending an eight-month stalemate between Washington and Islamabad. – DEFCON Hill
Pakistan and the United States are set to resume broader talks on security cooperation, militant threats, aid and other issues in the wake of an agreement to reopen supply routes into Afghanistan, Pakistan’s envoy to Washington said on Thursday. – Reuters
China
The Obama administration ratcheted up trade tensions with China, filing an international complaint against tariffs that Beijing slapped on many large U.S.-made cars and sport utility vehicles late last year. – Los Angeles Times
The western region of Xinjiang has increased security measures at all 16 of its airports after a failed hijacking attempt, according to a report on Thursday by Xinhua, the Chinese state news agency. – New York Times
China has detained and intimidated dozens of ethnic Uighurs in the far western region of Xinjiang for speaking out on rights abuses following riots in the regional capital three years ago, Amnesty International said. – Reuters
Josh Rogin reports: Echoing the laments of pundits like Thomas Friedman of the New York Times, U.S. Transportation Secretary Ray LaHood argued Saturday that China outpaces the United States in building major transportation infrastructure like high-speed rail because of its authoritarian system and because the Chinese don’t have the Republican Party holding up progress. – The Cable
Michael Auslin writes: China will continue to bide its time and would be wise not to antagonize its neighbors. It may work with the United States on lower order priorities, such as piracy, climate change, and the like. However, until it no longer views the world through an American prism, it is unlikely to adopt a truly cooperative attitude that would herald the birth of a new era in Sino-U.S. ties. – The Diplomat
Koreas
Millions of North Korean children are not getting the food, medicine or health care they need to develop physically or mentally, leaving many stunted and malnourished, a report from the United Nations says. – Associated Press
South Korea will soon start evaluating bids from U.S. and European firms in competition to win a $7.3 billion contract for 60 advanced fighter planes, the country’s arms procurement agency said July 5. – AFP
Southeast Asia
Southeast Asia has long been divided by language, religion, historical rivalries and, farther south, the geography of sprawling archipelagos. But the opening of Myanmar; the construction of bridges, railways and roads on the Indochinese peninsula; and the rise of inexpensive air travel are bringing the region’s nations closer to the goal of standing up to the two giants of the neighborhood, India and China. Those changes, in turn, give more credence to plans to establish a common market by 2015. – New York Times
The Philippine government protested China’s planned move to place virtually the entire South China Sea under the jurisdiction of a newly created city in the latest conflict between the Asian neighbors in the disputed region, officials said Thursday. – Associated Press
Myanmar’s army has detained 75 Thai villagers suspected of encroaching on Myanmar soil in an area where the border is not properly demarcated, a Thai deputy prime minister said on Friday. – Reuters
Russia
A Russian official on Monday said his country has little chance of meeting its Borei-class ballistic missile submarine construction goal for this decade, Interfax reported – Global Security Newswire
Belarus
Residents of a small town outside the Belarusian capital and the Swedish man who says he flew the plane in question have confirmed reports of a bizarre stunt to promote free speech by illegally entering Belarusian airspace and dropping teddy bears from an airplane. – Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty
United Kingdom
Seventeen major units are to be culled by the British Army as part of a transformation plan that will see regular force personnel numbers reduced to 82,000 from the current level of 102,000, the defense secretary announced July 5. – Defense News
Britain’s defence secretary hit back on Thursday at accusations that cuts to army numbers put the country at risk and reduced its standing as military power, as he outlined a major shake-up of the force’s structure. – Reuters
United States of America
A well-financed lobbying campaign by prominent U.S. politicians and former officials on behalf of a designated terrorist organization is focusing new attention on the group and its influential advocates. – Washington Post
Mitt Romney’s campaign is considering a major foreign policy offensive at the end of the month that would take him to five countries over three continents and mark his first move away from a campaign message devoted almost singularly to criticizing President Obama’s handling of the economy, sources tell POLITICO. – Politico
Republican presidential candidate Mitt Romney stepped back into the foreign-policy arena Thursday with a broadside against Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez. – The Hill’s Global Affairs
Discussions are ongoing over just how stringent new provisions should be as the Senate targets leakers in its upcoming Intelligence Authorization bill, according to a government source. – CNN’s Security Clearance
Gen. Jack Keane (USA, Ret.), Michael O’Hanlon, and Robert Morgenthau write: The Department of Veterans Affairs has spared no effort to care for our soldiers wounded in Iraq and Afghanistan. Yet the number of affected individuals is too great—and their mental-health challenges in particular too demanding—to leave the VA on its own in this mission. Instead, a major new private-public partnership is necessary. – Wall Street Journal (subscription required)
Latin America
Cuban President Raúl Castro is looking to strengthen the country’s economic ties to Beijing as it moves to liberalize its economy somewhat and limit its energy dependence on Venezuela, whose leader is battling cancer and a tough election at home. – Wall Street Journal (subscription required)
Two and a half years after the earthquake, Haiti remains mired in a humanitarian crisis, with 390,000 people languishing in tents. Yet the showcase project of the reconstruction effort is this: an industrial park that will create jobs and housing in an area undamaged by the temblor and in a venture that risks benefiting foreign companies more than Haiti itself. – New York Times
The president-elect of Mexico, Enrique Peña Nieto, said in an interview Thursday that he wants to expand his country’s drug-war partnership with the United States but that he would not support the presence of armed American agents in Mexico. – Washington Post
A recount on Thursday showed Mexico’s Enrique Pena Nieto as the clear winner of Sunday’s presidential election, but the runner-up still refused to concede, alleging Pena Nieto’s party bought millions of votes. – Reuters
West Africa
This month, Igbikis and 39 fellow former militants will graduate from their nine-month welding course in Port Harcourt, the delta’s biggest city, joining thousands of other ex-rebels who have graduated from education or training projects in Nigeria and abroad. They are all beneficiaries of a $405 million-a-year amnesty program that has become an unlikely success story for Nigeria’s government. – Washington Post
The U.N. Security Council on Thursday endorsed West African political efforts to end unrest in Mali but stopped short of backing military intervention in the West African state where al Qaeda-linked militants control significant territory. – Reuters
Editorial: In local lore, the doors of the Sidi Yahya mosque — bludgeoned open on Monday — will open only on the world’s last day. So far, the arrival of Ansar Dine in northern Mali, and its destructive wake in Timbuktu, has validated the myth. Extremists are destroying an African democracy, even as men with pickaxes hack away at a priceless global heritage. – Washington Post
East Africa
The Treasury Department on Thursday hit six people with financial sanctions for their links to a Somali Islamist group, including two Eritrean military officials. – The Hill’s Global Affairs
A deadly combination of conflict, poor rainfall and a predicted late harvest threatens to push hundreds of thousands of Somalis back into hunger, undermining aid efforts put in place during last year’s drought, Save the Children warned on Thursday. – Reuters
Zimbabwe
Zimbabwe has given international banks operating in the country a year to comply with a controversial indigenisation programme under which foreign companies are supposed to transfer 51 per cent stakes to black Zimbabweans. – Financial Times
