Thursday International

Iran

An organization of Iranian exiles has accused Tehran of establishing a new Revolutionary Guard office last year in a bid to more quickly obtain the capacity to build a nuclear bomb, the London Telegraph reported on Tuesday – Global Security Newswire

The United States and Britain will not tolerate Iranian attempts to block the strategically important Strait of Hormuz, defense chiefs from the two Western powers said Wednesday. – AFP

Syria

With the growing conviction that the Assad family’s 42-year grip on power in Syria is coming to an end, Obama administration officials worked on contingency plans Wednesday for a collapse of the Syrian government, focusing particularly on the chemical weapons that Syria is thought to possess and that President Bashir al-Assad could try to use on opposition forces and civilians. – New York Times

The killing on Wednesday of President Bashar al-Assad’s key security aides in a brazen bombing attack, close to Mr. Assad’s own residence, called into question the ability of a government that depends on an insular group of loyalists to function effectively as it battles a strengthening opposition. – New York Times

The attack dealt a grave blow to the leadership of the government’s war machine and struck an even bigger psychological one to its ability to project a sense of power and cohesion. – New York Times

U.S. officials faced a critical test of their approach to the 17-month-old crisis in Syria on Wednesday, hoping that as a visibly weakened Bashar al-Assad loses his grip, Russia and other supporters of the regime will shift course and break with their longtime ally. – Wall Street Journal (subscription required)

Iranian officials and Hezbollah leader Seyed Hassan Nasrallah denounced Wednesday’s blasts in Damascus that killed three high-level officials in President Bashar al-Assad’s government. – Wall Street Journal (subscription required)

The Treasury Department on Wednesday added 29 Syrian government officials and six companies with links to the regime of President Bashar al-Assad to its list of entities subject to sanctions, including an asset freeze and business restrictions. – New York Times

Something fundamental shifted in Damascus on Wednesday, a kind of before-the-bombing reality and a far different one afterward. “Really, up until this morning you could sense that the regime still had a firm grip over the country,” said a 25-year-old resident of the old city, declining to give her name amid the unsettling events. – New York Times

Syria is “rapidly spinning out of control,” U.S. Defense Secretary Leon Panetta said July 18, hours after a suicide bombing in Damascus killed three top Syrian security officials. – AFP

Syrian rebels kept up pressure on President Bashar al-Assad following the assassination of three top lieutenants, fighting loyalist troops within sight of the presidential palace and near government headquarters, residents said on Thursday. – Reuters

Syrian President Bashar al-Assad is in the coastal city of Latakia, directing the response to the assassination of three of his top lieutenants, opposition sources and a Western diplomat said on Thursday. – Reuters

The U.N. Security Council delayed until Thursday a vote on a Western-backed resolution that threatens Syrian authorities with sanctions and is aimed at ending the 16-month conflict, diplomats said on Wednesday. – Reuters

With rebels closing in on Damascus 16 months into an uprising against the Assad family’s four decades of iron-fisted rule, the world’s attention is focused on Bashar al-Assad’s inner circle, where none is more influential than brother Maher. – Reuters

Analysis: The lethal attack on Wednesday on President Bashar al-Assad’s senior security chiefs aligned neatly with a tactical shift that had changed the direction of Syria’s long conflict: the opposition fighters’ swift and successful adoption of makeshift bombs. – New York Times

Editorial: If the Obama administration wishes to save lives in Syria, it should support the creation of safe zones near the border where civilians can take refuge. If it wishes to speed the end of the Assad regime, it should provide the opposition with weapons that could tip the military balance. If what it mainly wants is to avoid getting involved in the conflict, despite Syria’s vital importance to U.S. interests in the Middle East, it should, at least, stop supporting diplomacy whose only beneficiaries are Vladimir Putin and Bashar al-Assad. – Washington Post

Editorial: One reason for the United States and others to begin planning now for what to do with Syria’s chemical weapons is to keep Israel from acting unilaterally. But the larger reason is to head off a nightmare scenario, when an artillery shell filled with sarin goes missing in the middle of a civil war. – Washington Post

Editorial: The Administration’s abdication to the U.N. reflects a desire to avoid conflict before the election as well as the worldview that the U.S. is a weakened power that needs the world’s (which means Vladimir Putin’s) approval to act. Syrians are now suffering the consequences, but the stability of the Middle East is also at risk. – Wall Street Journal (subscription required)

Fouad Ajami writes: [T]his regime only knew the rule of the gun. Some 27 “torture centers” cover the country, according to Human Rights Watch. In this first YouTube civil war in our time, the videos tell of a regime that grew more cruel as official panic set in. The Syrians had crossed the Rubicon, for them there would be no return to the servitude of the past. – Wall Street Journal (subscription required)

Elliott Abrams writes: What the administration wants, it has seemed for all 17 months of the Syrian revolt, is to hide behind the U.N. and Kofi Annan. The apparent success of outside aid, which has quickly made the opposition far more effective, shows that it should have been provided far sooner: regime collapse could have been induced far sooner and thousands of lives saved. Picking up the pieces in Syria will be a great deal harder because of the scope of the killings there over 17 months. – National Review Online’s The Corner

Michael Weiss writes: It’s rare that Syrians — at least, all but the most hopeless pro-regime ones — rely on state media for a dose of good news. But Wednesday’s confirmed killings of at least three key members of the regime’s “crisis management cell” prove two things: first, that the revolution is now literally at Bashar al-Assad’s doorstep, and second, that diplomats have officially been written out of the script on what to do about Syria. – Foreign Policy

Egypt

Omar Suleiman, the once-powerful head of Egypt’s intelligence service who tried and failed to run for president, died in an American hospital early on Thursday, according to the state-owned news agency MENA. – New York Times

A writer and former Reuters journalist, who has written for the International Herald Tribune, Ms. Eltahawy, 44, is a contemporary, feminist version of the Egyptian intellectuals who have long been a thorn in the flesh of their rulers — going back to the days when Britain was the colonial power. – New York Times

Yemen

A bomb ripped through the car of a senior Yemeni security officer on Thursday in the southern port city of Aden, killing him instantly in an attack that another security official blamed on Islamist militants with ties to al Qaeda. – Reuters

Gulf States

Mr. Roken, along with his son, Rashid, and son-in-law, Abdulla al-Hajeri, are 3 of at least 14 Emiratis who have been arrested since Monday morning by the United Arab Emirates state security apparatus, human rights advocates and family members said. Nearly two dozen activists are now being held by the authorities. – New York Times

Gulf countries with plenty of money are turning their attention to mining and commodities in an effort to diversify their portfolios, and their economies. – New York Times

Levant

The bomb attack in Damascus on Wednesday prompted starkly different reactions among political groups in Lebanon, many of whom define themselves by their support of or hatred for the Syrian government. – Washington Post

Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s image of invincibility has taken a knock, Israeli analysts said on Wednesday, a day after the breakup of the large and broad coalition that had given him almost unprecedented power. – New York Times

Yossi Beilin and Rabbi Benny Elon write: The agreements and institutions established within the framework of the Oslo Peace Accords were intended to be temporary and, two decades later, are no longer viable. The peacemakers were correct to seek a solution to the conflict, but were wrong to think it would happen because they wanted it to happen. To ignore and pretend that any longer is a worse mistake. – National Review Online

South Asia

Assailants claiming to belong to the Taliban destroyed 22 trucks carrying supplies for NATO forces in a normally secure region of northern Afghanistan on Wednesday, while insurgent attacks on two army checkpoints in the south and east left 12 Afghan soldiers dead. – Washington Post

A recent death sentence for an Afghan soldier who killed five French troops is generating controversy in Afghanistan, with insurgents hailing the man as a hero, and human-rights advocates urging clemency. – Wall Street Journal (subscription required)

India plans to let foreign carriers acquire stakes as large as 49% in Indian airlines and is working to persuade individual states to back the introduction of foreign supermarket chains, India’s commerce minister said. The policies are a sign that the government is trying to shed the perception that its business climate has become hostile to foreigners. – Wall Street Journal (subscription required)

Though there have been a number of symbolic feel-good measures and more high-level meetings [between India and Pakistan], little concrete progress is evident. Nor, say those on both sides, is much to be expected if history is any judge. – Los Angeles Times

Indian lawmakers voted for a new president on Thursday, ending weeks of wrangling and opening a much-hyped political window billed as the best chance for Prime Minister Manmohan Singh to launch a wave of reforms and reverse an economic slowdown. – Reuters

China

A French architect who has an apparent connection to a political scandal in China has agreed to return to that country after Cambodia released him from custody at Beijing’s request, Cambodian officials said Wednesday. – New York Times

President Hu Jintao told a gathering of African leaders on Thursday that China would lend $20 billion to the continent for infrastructure and agriculture in the next three years, with a new emphasis on grass-roots projects designed to help the people. – New York Times

China touted its close relations with Africa on Wednesday ahead of talks with the continent’s senior officials, even as some African countries grumble about problems that come from being locked in a tight embrace with the resource-hungry Asian economic power. – Associated Press

China may need to modernize its nuclear arsenal to respond to the destabilizing effect of a planned U.S.-backed missile defense system, a senior Chinese military officer said on Wednesday. – Reuters

Taiwan

Taiwan signed an the agreement with the U.S. government for a $3.7 billion upgrade to its existing 146 F-16A/B Block 20 fighter aircraft. – Defense News

Koreas

In the seven months he has been in power, the North Korean leader Kim Jong-un has picked up so many top titles in the ruling party, government and military that the new one bestowed on him Wednesday — marshal — seems almost redundant. Yet for those trying to parse North Korea’s intricately choreographed public statements for signs of palace intrigue, nothing is negligible, especially at a time when analysts believe significant leadership changes are afoot in the reclusive nuclear-armed country. – New York Times

At 11:07 a.m. Wednesday, North Korea’s state news agency released a terse statement: “An important report will be issued in the DPRK at 12:00 local time.” That triggered a frenzy of action in government offices, military bases, financial trading floors and newsrooms in South Korea and the region—because it is a rare occurrence, but also because it is a kind of fire drill in case, no matter how remote, North Korea makes history by declaring an end to its isolationist ways and freedom for its people. – Wall Street Journal (subscription required)

North Korea revved up the propaganda machine after the shake-up at the top of its military this week. Message: the military is happy with Kim Jong Eun. – WSJ’s Korea Real Time

One of Park Geun-hye’s biggest vulnerabilities in the presidential race – her father Park Chung-hee’s mixed record during his 18 years as the country’s military president – has come front and center just days after she formally jumped into the race. – WSJ’s Korea Real Time

Bill Gertz reports: Recent satellite navigation jamming by North Korea’s military near the demilitarized zone and a report in a Chinese journal are raising new fears that Pyongyang is developing electromagnetic pulse weapons. – Washington Times’ Inside the Ring

Southeast Asia

Indonesia, the world’s most populous Muslim-majority country, has long been considered a place where different religious and ethnic groups can live in harmony and where Islam can work with democracy. But that perception has been repeatedly brought into question lately. – New York Times

Philippines officials in particular have complained the regional bloc isn’t doing enough to stand up to China, which is asserting its claims in the sea. Cambodia, which is chairing this year’s Asean meetings, has resisted any steps that would embarrass China, which asked that Asean leaders keep the topic off the agenda last week. – WSJ’s Southeast Asia Real Time

Thailand’s former prime minister Thaksin Shinawatra has backtracked from vows to make an imminent return to Thailand, where he faces corruption-related charges, while his supporters in Bangkok battle for legal moves to give him an amnesty. – Financial Times

Southeast Asian states are working to craft a joint ASEAN statement over the South China Sea issue on Thursday, Cambodia’s foreign minister said, in an apparent effort to repair discord that led to an unprecedented failure to issue a communiqué after a regional summit last week. – Reuters

The U.S. Senate Finance Committee on Wednesday voted to keep pressure on Myanmar to continue economic and political reforms by extending a U.S. ban on imports from the resource-rich Southeast Asian nation for three more years. – Reuters

The Philippines will acquire 10 attack helicopters starting next year in a bid to boost the capabilities of the poorly equipped military, an air force spokesman said July 18. – AFP

Miles Yu reports: A leading Chinese fishing-industry official is urging the Chinese government to provide arms and military training for 100,000 Chinese fishermen to roam the South China Sea and defeat Vietnam and other countries in the region that are challenging China’s sweeping claims of sovereignty in those waters. – Washington Times’ Inside China

Russia

Russia’s upper house of Parliament moved to strengthen controls over the Internet and nonprofit organizations on Wednesday, prompting a warning from the United Nations human rights chief that the Kremlin is sliding back into Soviet ways. – New York Times

[S]ince coming to power 12 years ago, Putin has developed a consistent reputation for keeping everybody waiting, sometimes for hours, including Russians of every social station, foreign leaders, global corporate executives, the queen of England, and even, once, the pope. – Christian Science Monitor

A Senate panel on Wednesday killed a measure which would have delayed a trade deal with Russia until that country ceased providing arms to the Syrian government. – The Hill’s Global Affairs

Russia’s upper house of parliament voted on Wednesday to ratify entry into the World Trade Organization, and now only the signature of President Vladimir Putin is needed to complete the country’s 18-year bid to join the trade rules club. – Reuters

Josh Rogin reports: The Senate Finance Committee unanimously approved today a bill to grant Russia Permanent Normal Trade Relations (PNTR) status as well as a bill to punish Russian human rights violators, but time is running out to pass the legislation through the full House and Senate. – The Cable

Editorial: Above all, Mr. Putin wants to stop the Magnitsky Act, which is supported by Russia’s democratic opposition and which shows Mr. Putin that the American people also oppose his Bonapartism. Ahead of the debate in Congress, the Kremlin stirred up anti-Americanism and threatened retaliation. Adopting Magnitsky is the appropriate response. – Wall Street Journal (subscription required)

Bulgaria

The attack on a tour bus carrying Israeli vacationers outside the airport here was carried out by a suicide bomber carrying fake American identification, officials said on Thursday. – New York Times

Bulgaria’s popularity with Israelis yet relative lack of experience with political violence may explain how the country became a terrorist target. – Christian Science Monitor

Western Europe

British police officials said on Thursday that they had charged five people with terrorism offenses but insisted that the accusations were not related to the Olympic Games opening here on July 27 amid a shortage of civilian security personnel that has forced an expanded military deployment. – New York Times

The United Kingdom and United States should pursue a deeper, “far reaching” defense partnership that includes the development of joint requirements and collaborating on research-and-development efforts, Britain’s defense secretary said while visiting Washington. – Defense News

U.K. Defense Secretary Philip Hammond will fly to Fort Worth, Texas, Thursday to pick up his country’s first F-35 Joint Strike Fighter from Lockheed Martin’s assembly plant. It marks the first country of the international coalition other than the U.S. to receive one of the fifth generation fighters. – DoD Buzz

Germany faces a growing threat from militant Islamists and far-right fringe groups, including small extremist cells and lone-wolf operators, a top security official said Wednesday. – Associated Press

United States of America

Senators of both parties on Wednesday demanded that lawmakers and their staff have the same access to international trade negotiations that the Obama administration has offered to corporations and unions. – The Hill’s Global Affairs

Mitt Romney’s campaign is seeking to schedule a meeting between the GOP nominee and former Polish president Lech Walesa when Romney is overseas later this month, Romney insiders and foreign sources tell POLITICO. – Politico

Josh Rogin reports: The State Department is growing increasing frustrated with the MEK and its American lobbyists, and now with two leading lawmakers who are injecting themselves into the cause of the Iranian dissident group. – The Cable

Rogin also reports: Huma Abedin, top staffer to Secretary of State Hillary Clinton and wife of former Rep. Anthony Weiner, has a new and unlikely champion — Sen. John McCain (R-AZ). – The Cable

Mali

The government of Mali on Wednesday formally asked the International Criminal Court to investigate atrocities attributed to groups of armed rebels, including Islamic extremists, who established a breakaway ministate in the northern half of the country this year. – New York Times

At the Mauritania-Mali border, refugees were too tired, hungry and ragged to celebrate their departure from the turmoil. All they could speak of was the fear that had pushed them out — of the Islamists who have taken over, and of the simmering civil war that appears to loom. – New York Times

Zimbabwe

The Zimbabwean finance minister cut public spending and raised taxes in his mid-year fiscal review on Wednesday, saying the country had to “act and save ourselves [or] we do nothing and drown”. – Financial Times