Iran
Analysts say the shadow war pitting Israel against Iran and Hezbollah has more in common with the cloak-and-dagger maneuverings of the C.I.A. and the K.G.B. during the cold war than the publicity-hungry terrorism campaign of Al Qaeda. It represents a return to the idea that the most effective attack is often an ambiguous one. – New York Times
South Korean oil refiners said Wednesday they plan to restart imports of Iranian oil, saying that Tehran had offered to deliver crude on its own tankers and provide up to $1 billion worth of insurance coverage for the vessels. – Washington Post
On Wednesday, MTN said it has entered talks with U.S. officials in a bid to unlock its earnings from Iran. MTN said it expects Iran’s currency to weaken amid sanctions on the economy, which in turn would erode its earnings when it eventually is able to expatriate its profits. – Wall Street Journal (subscription required)
Iran’s nuclear moves are becoming harder for Israeli and U.S. intelligence to assess, making Teheran’s suspected atomic weapons drive an even more urgent matter, Defence Minister Ehud Barak said on Thursday. – Reuters
Syria
Syrian rebels in embattled Aleppo said on Thursday that government forces had reinforced their positions and were shelling contested areas on the second day of a ground offensive that the authorities say has inflicted heavy losses on forces seeking the overthrow of President Bashar al-Assad. – New York Times
Syria’s capital, once a haven from the violence tearing through much of the country, now has multiple front lines and bears battle scars of its own. A maze of checkpoints and neighborhood patrols run by the most hardened supporters of President Bashar al-Assad has allowed the government to reassert control in most areas—after rebel fighters stunned soldiers and residents last month. – Wall Street Journal
Two days after Syrian rebels and Hijab’s spokesman issued headline-grabbing reports that he had defected to neighboring Jordan, the Jordanian government announced Wednesday afternoon that he and his extended family had, in fact, slipped across the border that morning. – Washington Post
Syria’s chemical weapons stockpiles might have caught the world’s attention, but the Obama administration is also working behind the scenes to prevent more conventional shoulder-fired missiles from falling into the wrong hands, the State Department’s liaison to the Pentagon said Wednesday. – The Hill’s Global Affairs
As anti-government forces look to carve out a stronghold in the northern part of the country, U.S. policymakers are not ruling out establishing a series of no-fly zones to protect those rebel enclaves. – DEFCON Hill
Iran hosts a foreign ministers’ conference on Thursday to seek a resolution to the intensifying conflict in Syria but its latest diplomatic foray into the crisis has been met with deep skepticism by Western nations. – Reuters
Russia said it would take part in planned talks in Tehran about the Syria crisis on Thursday and would repeat its calls for an end to violence and a political dialogue, but indicated that preparations for the forum had been rushed. – Reuters
As Syria spirals deeper into a full-scale civil war, Western delegations at the United Nations are increasingly skeptical about the value of appointing a replacement for Kofi Annan as the U.N.-Arab League mediator in the conflict, U.N. envoys say. – Reuters
Some prominent Syrian rebel fighters have signed a ‘code of conduct’ committing them to observe human rights in their battle to overthrow President Bashar al-Assad, a week after video footage showed rebels executing pro-Assad militiamen in Aleppo. – Reuters
All the Iranians kidnapped by Syrian rebels last week are alive and well, an Iranian foreign ministry official said, contrary to statements by rebels holding them that three of the captives had been killed in an air attack. – Reuters
A Russian general met reporters at the Defense Ministry in Moscow on Wednesday to deny reports that he had been killed by rebel forces in Syria and was shown on television looking well. – Reuters
Former French president Nicolas Sarkozy called on Wednesday for rapid international intervention in Syria, likening its conflict to the early days of war in Libya in which he mobilized NATO-led action that helped rebels oust Muammar Gaddafi. – Reuters
Editorial: By refusing to step in, the Obama administration is merely ensuring that Syria’s future leaders will be more resistant to the West and perhaps more open to groups such as al-Qaeda. It is also giving the enduring hard core of the Assad regime the space and the opportunity to fight on. – Washington Post
Kenneth M. Pollack, Frederick W. Kagan, Kimberly Kagan, and Marisa Cochrane Sullivan write: The Saban Center for Middle East Policy joined with the American Enterprise Institute and the Institute for the Study of War in June 2012 to host a one-day crisis simulation that explored the implications of spillover from the ongoing violence in Syria. The simulation examined how the United States and its allies might address worsening instability in Lebanon, Iraq, Jordan, Turkey, and elsewhere in the Middle East as a result of the internecine conflict in Syria.– Brookings Institution
Iranian Foreign Minister Ali Akbar Salehi writes: I hereby announce Iran’s readiness to host a meeting of countries committed to immediately implementing these steps in hopes of ending the violence. As part of our commitment to resolve the crisis, I also reiterate our willingness to facilitate talks between the Syrian government and the opposition and to host such a dialogue. – Washington Post
Former UK Defense Minister Malcom Rifkind writes: Arming the Syrian insurgents is not an attractive strategy. Providing arms to be used in combat never is. There would be serious risks. But we can already see that the alternative is far worse. The Syrian people need the tools so that they can finish the job of removing this cruel regime. – International Herald Tribune
James Dobbins writes: I do not believe the United States should become the chief standard-bearer for an external military intervention. I do believe, however, that the United States should up its assistance to the rebels to include lethal equipment and training. It should also remain open to even greater involvement if the Syrian opposition requests it and other regional powers call for and are prepared to participate in any such effort, much as it did in Libya when those conditions were met. – Foreign Policy
Dalia Dassa Kaye and David Kaye write: As they move beyond the shadow of four decades of Assads, Syrians will have to decide how to go forward, such as what institutions to build or rebuild and how to do it, what principles should guide a new government, how to replace authoritarianism and corruption with the rule of law, and whether to hold accountable those responsible for the violence of recent months and the decades of abusive rule by the regime. We should be there to support those efforts, but it would be infinitely more complicated if we enter with the force of arms. – Los Angeles Times
Symposium: Some are already calling the conflict a civil war. What can be done to end the fighting, or at least contain it? – NYT’s Room for Debate
North Africa
Signaling a new era in Egypt’s diplomacy, President Mohamed Morsi met with Iran’s vice president Wednesday in the highest-level official contact between the two strategic nations in decades. – Los Angeles Times
President Mohamed Morsi fired his intelligence chief and other top security officials on Wednesday in a sweeping response by his new government to the killings of 16 soldiers in Sinai Peninsula. – New York Times
Egyptian police fought gunmen in northern Sinai’s main town of al-Arish on Thursday, state television reported, a day after security forces began a crackdown on Islamist militants in the region. – Reuters
Libya’s ruling council handed over power to a newly elected national assembly on Wednesday in the North African country’s first peaceful transition of power in its modern history but which comes amid heightened violence. – Reuters
Gulf States
The United States and its Arab allies are knitting together a regional missile defense system across the Persian Gulf to protect cities, oil refineries, pipelines and military bases from an Iranian attack, according to government officials and public documents. – New York Times
Iran’s threat to close the Strait of Hormuz has triggered alarm about the flow of oil from the Persian Gulf, but for the arid, oil-rich countries in the region it poses another uncomfortable question: For how long can they feed their people if the strategic waterway is blocked? – Wall Street Journal (subscription required)
Saudi Arabian authorities are deploying a range of judicial methods to stifle the country’s pro-democracy and human rights campaigners in a crackdown on dissent that includes jail terms and travel bans, according to activists. – Reuters
An Omani court sentenced 12 people on Wednesday to up to a year in jail for “illegal gathering”, their lawyer said, in a further move against unrest inspired by last year’s Arab Spring revolts. – Reuters
Yemen
President Obama’s chief counterterrorism adviser on Wednesday defended the administration’s strategy to stem the growth of al-Qaeda’s affiliate in Yemen, saying its use of targeted killing is part of a wider approach that includes humanitarian, development and military assistance. – Washington Post
Yemen has foiled a plot by an al Qaeda-linked cell to carry out attacks inside the capital Sanaa and seized 40 belts packed with explosives, the mayor said on Wednesday, highlighting the risks posed by Islamist militancy in the impoverished Arab state. – Reuters
Israel
Israel charged eight Arabs on Wednesday with smuggling in explosives from Lebanon on behalf of Hezbollah militants for the purpose of attacks in the Jewish state, the Justice Ministry said. – Reuters
An Israeli plan to evict 12 shepherd communities in the occupied West Bank to make way for army training zones was condemned by the Palestinian premier on Wednesday as a move to depopulate Palestinian areas. – Reuters
A Swiss laboratory will help investigate the unexplained 2004 death of Palestinian leader Yasser Arafat only if it receives guarantees its findings will not be used for political purposes, a spokesman for the lab said on Wednesday. – Reuters
Turkey
Suspected Kurdish militants ambushed a Turkish military bus on its way to a naval base in the western province of Izmir on Thursday in an attack which police said killed one soldier and wounded at least 11 people. – Reuters
Afghanistan
The transition of Kunar’s security to Afghan control is happening more gradually than in some other provinces, and the nature of the recent attacks shows why, in part: despite years of intensive coalition military offensives in some parts of the region, militants pose a perpetual threat, even in the provincial capital, Asadabad. – New York Times
Afghan civilian deaths dropped 22 percent in the first six months of 2012 compared with a year earlier, but the number of civilians killed in targeted assassinations surged, the United Nations says in a report released Wednesday. – Associated Press
A suicide attack hit a NATO patrol in eastern Afghanistan on Wednesday, killing three coalition service members, the international military force said, while Afghan officials added that a civilian was also killed in the bombing. – Associated Press
Ahmad Majidyar writes: Afghanistan is a vital national security issue for the United States. And the media is doing a disservice to the public by not reflecting the truth about the war. – AEI Ideas
South Asia
President Obama called India’s prime minister Wednesday morning to offer his condolences three days after a right-wing extremist killed six people, including Indian nationals, at a Sikh temple in Wisconsin. – The Hill’s Global Affairs
Editorial: The Administration’s relations with Pakistan have warmed recently, and a new ISI chief is taking a more constructive approach toward Washington. But any rapprochement can go only so far while Dr. Afridi remains in prison. America brought all the SEALs who took part in the bin Laden raid safely home, and the doctor belongs in their company. Those who help America should have the comfort of knowing that, just as we don’t leave our soldiers on the battlefield, we also don’t leave our friends. – Wall Street Journal (subscription required)
Reza Jan writes: [G]iven the unique circumstances that currently exist, the inherent restraints on Pakistani retaliation and the recent “upward spiral” in U.S.-Pakistan relations (including potential talks of a joint U.S.-Pakistani offensive against the Haqqani Network), the U.S. government is currently presented with what may be a singular opportunity to designate the Haqqanis as an FTO and escape meaningful repercussions from Pakistan – AEI’s Critical Threats Project
China
The murder trial of Gu Kailai, the wife of the deposed political leader Bo Xilai, began here on Thursday morning and came to an end seven hours later, with officials saying that the defendant and her accomplice had all but confessed to poisoning a British businessman who had threatened the safety of Ms. Gu’s son. – New York Times
The sister of Gu Kailai – the Chinese politician’s wife whose trial for the murder of British businessman Neil Heywood begins on Thursday in China – fronted a company that purchased luxury London properties since linked to the scandal-hit family, the Financial Times has found. – Financial Times
China’s economy has made a sluggish start to the second half of the year as industrial output and retail sales both slowed in July, putting pressure on the government to step up its policy stimulus. – Financial Times
China and Taiwan have signed their first investor-protection agreement in the latest sign of the momentum behind President Ma Ying-jeou’s drive to strengthen his country’s relationship with China, its biggest trade partner and frequent political adversary. – Financial Times
Almost assuredly, the Communist regime’s crude attempts to stamp out citizens’ most treasured beliefs by manipulating their outward expression are doomed to fail. If anything they are counterproductive, fueling a spiral of repression and resistance. The world may not know much about the Uighurs’ plight now. But unless Beijing charts a new course, we will soon become more familiar with their perilous condition, in ways that will please no one. – Freedom House’s Freedom at Issue
North Korea
Impoverished North Korea is a long way from famine levels that killed hundreds of thousands in the 1990s but it won’t be until late next month that a full assessment of food levels after recent floods is possible, a U.N. official said on Thursday. – Reuters
Southeast Asia
As Myanmar emerges from decades of isolation and oppression, it hopes to reclaim its nearly forgotten status as the world’s biggest rice exporter. – Reuters
The United States and Vietnam on Thursday began cleaning up the toxic chemical defoliant Agent Orange on part of Danang International Airport, marking the first time Washington has been involved in cleaning up Agent Orange in Vietnam. – Reuters
Inside the Ring obtained the first photograph of the Chinese ship that was beached July 7 and stranded for 10 days. The photo was taken by a Philippines military photographer during a flight over the disputed Half Moon Shoal that both Beijing and Manila claim as their maritime territory. – Washington Times’ Inside the Ring
A central benefit of peace and stability in Southeast Asia—which is a goal of the U.S. administration’s strategic pivot—would be to open the way for greater commercial opportunities on both sides of the Pacific. It’s time for Washington to understand that trade and economic ties can be part of the means to a strategic solution in the region, and not just the ends. – Wall Street Journal (subscription required)
United States of America
As the junior senator from Illinois, he co-sponsored a bill to restrict the U.S. government’s military support of countries that use children as soldiers. But now, 44 has waived those very same sanctions in the name of “national interest,” bypassing the findings of a State Department report – Washington Times
A senior aide to 44 is calling for any White House official who knowingly leaked details about classified national security programs to be prosecuted. – DOTMIL
The U.S. State Department has earned a greater say in international security policy, aided by years of joint nation-building in the Middle East that have improved cooperation with the Pentagon, a top State official said Aug. 8. – Defense News
Josh Rogin reports: Former World Bank President Bob Zoellick has begun work as the head of national security transition planning for Mitt Romney’s presidential campaign, causing an uproar inside the campaign’s foreign-policy advisory team and spawing concern in parts of the greater Republican foreign-policy establishment. – The Cable
West Africa
The lead mediator in regional efforts to end unrest in Mali told rebels that they must cut ties to “terrorist movements” like al Qaeda before any peace talks could begin, when he travelled to the rebel-held north for the first time. – Reuters
Sudan
Around 655,000 people have been displaced or severely affected by fighting between the Sudanese army and rebels in two southern border states, the United Nations said on Wednesday. – Reuters
Mr. Mohamad is one of many dissidents detained recently in a crackdown by the Sudanese government. At least 2,000 have been arrested, activists say. The crackdown aims to crush a new attempt at a protest movement calling for the ouster of Lt. Gen. Bashir, – Associated Press
Central Africa
African leaders failed on Wednesday to agree on the make-up of a proposed neutral force to tackle the insurgency in eastern Democratic of Congo, diplomats at a regional meeting said. – Reuters
South Africa
In an unusually personal reflection on forgiveness and redemption, Secretary of State Hillary Rodham Clinton urged South African students too young to remember apartheid not to lose sight of the example their country holds for the world and themselves. – Washington Post
Mrs. Clinton’s trip, expected to stretch over the better part of two weeks and nine countries, reflects the shifting image of the continent and the deepening political, economic and security stakes at play here. – New York Times
