Iran
Top U.S. intelligence officials are siding with assertions made by Israeli counterparts that Iran is closer than ever to achieving a nuclear weapon, according to recent media reports out of Jerusalem. – DEFCON Hill
Saudi Arabia has informed U.S. officials that it will intercept any Israeli aircraft attempting to reach Iran through Saudi airspace, Tel Aviv daily Yediot Ahronot reported yesterday. – Washington Free Beacon
The United States still believes that Iran is not on the verge of having a nuclear weapon and that Tehran has not made a decision to pursue one, U.S. officials said on Thursday. – Reuters
A U.S. guided-missile destroyer rescued 10 Iranian seamen from a burning dhow in the Gulf of Oman and was providing them with medical care while working to coordinate their return home, the U.S. Navy said on Thursday. – Reuters
Syria
Government forces backed by jets, helicopters, artillery and tanks were reported on Friday to have resumed their pursuit of rebels in embattled Aleppo who sought to highlight small gains in the midst of a withdrawal from the most contested area of the city. – New York Times
Shut out of diplomatic meetings on the Syria conflict, Iran convened emergency consultations of its own on Thursday, with participants from nearly 30 countries, including Russia and China, discussing ways to reach a solution. It was the first such gathering since the special representative Kofi Annan resigned as a United Nations and Arab League mediator last week. – New York Times
Opposition fighters locked in battle for Syria’s largest city, Aleppo, have a new resource: Rebels now control a swath of territory to their north, including two border crossings with Turkey. The opposition hopes its first substantial enclave of the 17-month uprising, seized from the government in the past few weeks, will transform a fight that for months has seen no clear victor – Wall Street Journal (subscription required)
[E]ven as the rebels make advances in their firepower and gain territory, serious divisions and suspicion among the fighters threaten to hold them back. – Los Angeles Times
Syrian activists often play down the religious aspect of the country’s revolution, insisting that in a conservative society it is only natural that people who are suffering should seek refuge in religion. But as the regime’s brutality has intensified, the rebel movement has become more radicalized. In this overwhelmingly Sunni Muslim struggle against a minority Alawite regime, Salafists and other Islamists say they are fighting a jihad against the Assads. – Washington Post
The consequences of the war here have become familiar: neighborhoods shelled, civilians killed and refugees departed. But in the background, many Syrians describe something else that has them cowering with fear: a wave of lawlessness not unlike the crime wave Iraq experienced during the conflict there. – New York Times
Veteran Algerian diplomat Lakhdar Brahimi is expected to replace Kofi Annan as the U.N.-Arab League joint special envoy for Syria barring a last-minute change, diplomats said on Thursday. – Reuters
Iran urged Syrian rebels on Thursday to start talks with President Bashar al-Assad about political reform and said it won international support at a meeting in Tehran for such a strategy to end the conflict. – Reuters
Syrian army forces bombarding rebel foes in Aleppo may have sound reasons for delaying the expected next stage of their campaign to take Syria’s largest city — an infantry advance that would test the mettle of their front line troops. – Reuters
A former Lebanese government minister with close ties to Syrian President Bashar al-Assad was detained near Beirut on Thursday for questioning over what the Lebanese prime minister described as security-related matters. – Reuters
Nick Kristof writes: Look, I’m no hawk. I was strongly against the Iraq war and the Afghan surge, and I’m firmly against today’s drift toward war with Iran. But Syria, like Libya, is a rare case where we can take modest steps that stand a good chance of accelerating the fall of a dictator. And after 17 months, there’s growing agreement that Obama should no longer remain a bystander. – New York Times
Peter Feaver writes: When Nick Kristof starts accusing the president of being AWOL, the tide is turning. What will President Obama say in response? – Shadow Government
Kori Schake writes: The Obama administration seems not to understand that violence has political causes, and that “preventing violence” only reinforces the grip of those in power. They are diagnosing symptoms, not diseases. As no less a source than Elie Wiesel said, “we must always take sides. Neutrality helps the oppressor, never the victim. Silence encourages the tormentor, never the tormented.” The Obama administration applauds itself for “new pragmatism.” That should be called what it is: a studied neutrality to the claims of a people against their government, an even-handedness between repressors and repressed. – Shadow Government
Egypt
Egypt was plunged into its worst blackout in months Thursday when a power outage swept across much of the capital, crippling the Egyptian Stock Exchange, stranding passengers in subway cars and creating fresh anger at the embattled government. – LA Times’ World Now
Egypt poured troops into North Sinai on Thursday in an offensive meant to tackle militants in the Israeli border region, but residents were skeptical, saying they had seen no sign of anyone being killed in what they described as a “haphazard” operation. – Reuters
Israel on Thursday granted an Egyptian request for Cairo to use attack helicopters in Sinai for the first time since a 1979 treaty which strictly limited the deployment of military force in the desert peninsula, a senior Israeli official said. – Reuters
The head of the Hamas government in Gaza urged Egypt on Thursday to open a vital border crossing closed since gunmen killed 16 Egyptian guards in neighboring Sinai on Sunday. – Reuters
Libya
Libya’s national assembly picked former opposition leader Mohammed Magarief as its president as the North African country’s newly elected congress began its rule. – Reuters
Yemen
Yemen is not Afghanistan, nor Iraq. At least not yet. Here are three reasons why – DOTMIL
A senior Yemeni security official has been killed by a car bomb in the south-eastern city of Mukalla, in a suspected al Qaeda attack, a local security official said. – Reuters
Iraq
Iraq has overtaken Iran as the second-largest oil producer within the Opec cartel for the first time since the late 1980s in a highly symbolic shift that highlights the impact of western sanctions on Tehran. – Financial Times
Levant
The delivery of an upgraded interceptor currently being installed on Israel’s Arrow anti-missile batteries will ramp up Israel’s ability to cope with threats from Syria and Iran, defense experts say. – Defense News
A security firm said on Thursday that it had discovered what it believed was the fourth state-sponsored computer virus to surface in the Middle East in the last three years, one apparently aimed at collecting information from computers in Lebanon. – NYT’s Bits Blog
A former Lebanese government minister with close ties to Syrian President Bashar al-Assad was detained in Lebanon on Thursday for questioning over what the Lebanese prime minister described as security-related matters. – Reuters
Alan Dershowitz writes: If the U.N. were to reward this abysmal history of violence and terrorism, it would be encouraging other groups to follow the “Palestinian path” to statehood. The end result would be more violence and terrorism in the world. – Wall Street Journal (subscription required)
Zahi Khouri writes: If Romney had any historical perspective, he would dispose of his racist judgments about Palestinian culture and instead imagine our potential without Israel’s imposed hindrances. – Washington Post
Turkey
Suspected Kurdish militants ambushed a Turkish military bus in western Turkey on Thursday in an attack which police said killed one soldier and wounded at least 11 people, adding to a recent upsurge in separatist violence. – Reuters
Turkey’s foreign minister accused Syrian President Bashar al-Assad of arming a Kurdish militant group that has fought the Turkish state for decades, potentially exacerbating a conflict which has killed more than 40,000 people. – Reuters
Afghanistan
Mr. Mushkani and fellow entrepreneurs are grappling with a fatal flaw in their business plans: They expected the Americans to stick around longer. But, now, with U.S. forces preparing to depart Kandahar next year, the American electricity will disappear, too. – Wall Street Journal (subscription required)
A man dressed as an Afghan police officer has killed at least three American Special Forces soldiers after inviting them to eat dinner at a check post in southern Afghanistan, an Afghan official said on Friday, in what appeared to be a premeditated killing of American soldiers by their Afghan allies. – New York Times
Two Afghan soldiers tried to gun down a group of NATO troops outside a military base in eastern Afghanistan on Thursday, officials said. No international forces were killed, but one of the attackers was killed as NATO forces shot back. – Associated Press
Josh Rogin reports: Secretary of State Hillary Clinton and USAID Administrator Rajiv Shah both issued statements of condolence following the death of USAID Foreign Service Officer Ragaei Abdelfattah, along with three ISAF soldiers, at the hands of a suicide bomber Thursday in Afghanistan. – The Cable
South Asia
Senior U.S. and Pakistani military leaders are reportedly formulating a new joint border security strategy to help curb deadly attacks by Pakistani-based terror groups on American and coalition forces inside Afghanistan. – DEFCON Hill
Pakistan is viewed as being prepared to reconsider the minimum level at which it might use a nuclear weapon against longtime rival India, U.S. congressional analysts said in a late June report – Global Security Newswire
Sebastian Rotella writes: Now, after weeks of interrogation, Ansari’s statements to Indian police have reinforced evidence of the ISI’s role in a terror plot that targeted Americans at the same time Pakistan was receiving billions of dollars in U.S. aid, officials have told ProPublica. Previous disclosures in U.S. and Indian courts about the spy agency’s links to the Mumbai attacks, which killed six Americans, contributed to a dramatic decline in U.S.-Pakistani relations over the past two and a half years. – Foreign Policy
Tom Hundley writes: Boosting strategic ties with India by offering it nuclear technology may have looked like a win-win idea at the time, but thus far the payoff to the U.S. nuclear industry has not materialized and the headache of dealing with Pakistan’s burgeoning nuclear arsenal is getting worse. – Foreign Policy
China
Communist Party leaders clearly hoped the proceedings…would provide the Chinese public with a captivating spectacle that would distract attention from the political scandal surrounding Ms. Gu’s husband, a populist leader who left a trail of corruption and abuse of power that deeply unnerved many of his fellow Politburo members. But if they hoped the trial would also showcase a more transparent, by-the-books legal system, they are likely to be disappointed. – New York Times
Hopes dimmed for an imminent pickup in China, the world’s growth engine, as a batch of disappointing economic data released Thursday showed industrial production and retail sales falling well short of expectations in July. – New York Times
Australia said Thursday it was “optimistic” about the emergence of China as a world power but said strong and peaceful ties between Beijing and the United States would be key to regional stability. – Defense News
When the court hearing in Ms Gu’s murder trial wrapped up in the eastern Chinese city of Hefei on Thursday afternoon, court officials went to great lengths to demonstrate professional and fair proceedings. But official propaganda could not conceal that Ms Gu’s trial is part of a much larger, carefully scripted political drama in which her husband’s fortunes have played a key part. – Financial Times
China pressed ahead with an offensive against ousted politician Bo Xilai on Friday, a day after the murder trial of his wife, with a separate prosecution of four police officers accused of trying to cover up the killing that she was accused of. – Reuters
Editorial: By the time of the party congress, when Mr. Xi and a new politburo are installed, the Bo affair may be wrapped up, officially. But China’s leadership will have demonstrated — to the world and to its own people — its continuing disregard for the rule of law, its defiance of accountability and its fear of popular opinion. That’s a poor way to inaugurate a new leadership — which may find that the politics of purges and show trials is no longer sustainable. – Washington Post
Alice Miller writes: Mr. Chen’s purge helped break the back of the so-called Shanghai Gang associated with retired top leader Jiang Zemin as Hu Jintao moved to consolidate power at the 2007 17th Party Congress. In much the same fashion, Bo Xilai’s removal takes down a potential adversary in elite politics on the eve of the 18th Congress. – Wall Street Journal Asia (subscription required)
Jillian Kay Melchior writes: The Chinese moral education that is offered in public schools focuses on a rigid understanding of values like patriotism, work ethic and self-reliance. Chinese Christians, on the other hand, are notorious for their friendliness and charitable outreach. More crucially, they avoid politics, focusing more on their deeds and their faith. This wins them a good reputation, sometimes even among skeptical officials. That’s why these Christians are puzzled why the state makes practicing their faith so uncertain. – Wall Street Journal (subscription required)
East Asia
South Korean President Lee Myung-bak on Friday visited a craggy group of islets that are claimed by Japan, prompting Tokyo to summon its ambassador from Seoul and inflaming already-testy relations between the East Asian neighbors. – Washington Post
The Pentagon will begin flying unmanned surveillance missions over the Diaoyutai Islands, off the coastlines of Japan, China and Taiwan. – DEFCON Hill
Southeast Asia
The US government’s landmark decision to clean up the herbicide Agent Orange – some 50 years after it was first used to defoliate Vietnam’s jungle during the Vietnam War – is yet another indicator that Washington is committed to fostering positive relations with its one-time foe, analysts say. – Christian Science Monitor
Myanmar’s parliament is due to debate a keenly awaited foreign investment law next week and the president could sign it into law this month, sources close to the legislative process said on Friday. – Reuters
Editorial: The best chance of avoiding a nasty showdown is a strong U.S. response. Washington has maintained its own ambiguity toward the South China Sea, saying it takes no side in the dispute but has a national interest in the peaceful resolution. That’s fine as far as the islands and the small areas of territorial waters around them. But Beijing has shown that it has no interest in a negotiated settlement and will use force to claim and dominate the entire South China Sea if it can. Washington needs to call out the U-shaped line as the travesty of international law that it is, and state clearly that it will fight to keep the sea lanes open. – Wall Street Journal Asia (subscription required)
Russia
A crackdown on religious groups, deadly attacks on Muslim leaders, and a raid on a “catacomb” Islamic sect have turned the spotlight on what authorities say is the alarming rise of radical Islam in Tatarstan. – Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty
Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev on Thursday issued a veiled warning about China’s rising influence in Russia’s resource-rich Far East, saying it was essential to defend the area against “excessive expansion by bordering states”. – Reuters
Leon Aron writes: US policymakers ought to adjust to the fact that, after a decade of at best harmless neglect, Russian domestic politics will become an increasingly central factor in US-Russian relations. This should be a welcome change for it may indicate a restarted evolution immensely favorable to America’s geostrategy and security: a free, prosperous, democratic, and peaceful Russia, once again within the grasp of the Russian people. – American Enterprise Institute
Europe
Britain has appointed a senior judge to hold an inquest into the death of Alexander Litvinenko, the former Russian agent turned Kremlin critic whose death from polonium poisoning in London in 2006 soured relations between London and Moscow. – Reuters
Tom Gallagher writes: The Ponta camp hopes that Brussels is so preoccupied with Europe’s other woes that it will weary of its Romanian problem—and thus look the other way as the judiciary suffers the same fate as the parliament and media. But Brussels has cards to play in Bucharest, especially with the crucial economic support it gives Romania. Unless the EU maintains its vigilance and is ready to enforce its own rules of membership, Romania’s drift could be irreversible. – Wall Street Journal Europe
United States of America
Josh Rogin reports: The neoconservative wing of the Republican foreign policy establishment is up in arms about Mitt Romney’s selection of realist Bob Zoellick to head his national security transition team, but the realists have been the Republicans who steered the ship of U.S. foreign policy the best, according to Zoellick’s mentor, former Secretary of State James Baker. – The Cable
Rogin also reports: The polls show a tight race, but senior GOP foreign-policy hands are already jostling for consideration for top positions in a potential Mitt Romney administration, and the rumor mill about who might get what top post is churning along. – The Cable
Latin America
Brazil’s defense minister said the economic slowdown has delayed the country’s long-awaited decision to purchase a new generation of fighter jets. – Wall Street Journal (subscription required)
The perverse effects of Venezuela’s cheap petrol policy can be seen everywhere in the country. Gas-guzzling Dodge Darts and Ford Mavericks from the 1970s ply the roads. Caracas, the capital, suffers from nightmarish traffic jams. Worst of all, the policy has made smuggling petrol a multibillion-dollar business given that a gallon costs just $0.085, a seventh of the price in Saudi Arabia and a 48th of the price in neighbouring Colombia. – Financial Times
Venezuelan security forces have arrested an American citizen who entered the nation illegally with geographical coordinates in a notebook, President Hugo Chavez said on Thursday. – Reuters
Venezuela’s foreign minister slammed “right-wing, tabloid” journalists who he accused on Thursday of launching a dirty campaign to discredit the country after its acting ambassador was murdered in Kenya. – Reuters
West Africa
Islamists who control northern Mali have publicly amputated the hand of a man they accused of robbery, continuing an increasingly harsh application of what the vast region’s new masters consider sacred law. – New York Times
The Obama administration is renewing an offer to help Nigeria marshal military and intelligence resources against a growing extremist threat that U.S. officials fear could spread to neighboring nations, a U.S. official said Thursday. – Washington Post
U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Rodham Clinton urged Nigerian authorities Thursday to boost their intelligence capabilities to better combat growing extremist violence. – Associated Press
Islamist rebels have cut off the hand of a suspected cattle thief in Mali, an insurgent leader said on Thursday – the first case of amputation under sharia (Islamic law) imposed by insurgents controlling the country’s desert north. – Reuters
Hundreds of fighters aligned with Ivory Coast President Alassane Ouattara committed grave crimes, including execution and torture during the country’s recent post-election violence, according to the final report of the country’s Commission of Inquiry given to the president on Wednesday. – Associated Press
East Africa
Fourteen years after American cruise missiles destroyed a pharmaceutical factory in Khartoum, its ruins have been left untouched as a shrine that still rankles Sudanese. – Christian Science Monitor
African troops plan to launch an attack on a Somali Islamist base in the port of Kismayu next month in an attempt to hasten an end to the insurgency that has troubled the region for more than 20 years, says Raila Odinga, Kenya’s prime minister. – Financial Times
It has virtually no roads and its economy is in tatters but South Sudan said on Thursday it plans to spend up to $4 billion in the next decade on building itself a 7,000 km (4,300 mile) road network – Reuters
Central Africa
Congo has rejected calls for an exclusively African regional force to tackle a raging insurgency in the country’s east, accusing neighboring states of involvement, and ruled out any negotiations with the rebels behind the crisis. – Reuters
Thor Halvorssen and George Ayittey write: Equatorial Guinea is home to Africa’s longest-ruling dictator, Teodoro Obiang Nguema, who seized power in a military coup by executing his uncle 33 years ago. Freedom House ranks the country among the “worst of the worst” human-rights abusers, along with North Korea, Syria and Somalia. Yet the Sullivan Foundation is celebrating its Obiang-hosted summit as a milestone for human rights, part of its “unwavering commitment to democratic ideals.” – Wall Street Journal (subscription required)
