Iran
Iran threatened on Tuesday to halt all its oil exports if the West’s antinuclear sanctions on the country are strengthened, apparently in the hope that such a warning would spook the international petroleum market by raising prices and reminding the world of Iran’s potential to wreak havoc with the global economy. – New York Times
President Obama would welcome one-on-one talks with Iran aimed at getting the country to abandon its alleged nuclear weapons program, White House spokesman Jay Carney confirmed Tuesday. – The Hill’s Global Affairs
Big powers may ask Iran for stricter limits on its nuclear work if it wants an easing of harsh sanctions – a long-shot approach aimed at yielding a negotiated solution that has eluded them for more than a decade. – Reuters
In all probability the regime is battening down the hatches, husbanding foreign-exchange reserves, and preparing for a long ordeal. Given the progress that Tehran has already made with its nuclear plans—still-hidden centrifuge manufacturing plants, enrichment facilities at Natanz and Fordow, a likely weaponization facility at Parchin, and an extensive ballistic-missile program—the regime faces a short, relatively inexpensive dash to the nuclear finish line. – Wall Street Journal (subscription required)
Syria
Syrian artillery gunners shelled a bread bakery full of workers and customers on Tuesday in an insurgent-held neighborhood of Aleppo, Syria’s largest city, killing at least 20 people and wounding more than 30 in what activists and videographers described as a sudden and devastating attack. – New York Times
The leader of the Tawheed division, one of the largest rebel factions fighting in the northern Syrian city of Aleppo, has survived an assassination attempt while visiting the front lines, according to an oppositon video posted on YouTube. – LA Times’ World Now
International mediator Lakhdar Brahimi said on Wednesday the Syrian government has agreed to a ceasefire during the Muslim holiday of Eid al-Adha and that Damascus would announce the decision shortly. – Reuters
Syrian warplanes on Tuesday struck a strategic rebel-held town in the country’s north in an attempt to reopen a key supply route, activists said, as a U.N.-proposed cease-fire meant to start this week appeared increasingly unlikely to take hold. – Associated Press
Syrian rebels are battling to seize an army base close to the main north-south highway and say its capture would be a big step towards creating a “safe zone” allowing them to focus on Bashar al-Assad’s southern strongholds. – Reuters
Syrian rebels have acquired portable surface-to-air missiles including U.S.-made Stingers, the Interfax news agency quoted Russia’s senior general as saying on Wednesday. – Reuters
Piece by piece, Syria’s rebels are slowly expanding their arsenal and getting their hands on more advanced weapons. The process still appears to be haphazard and improvised, far from the reliable, organized pipeline that rebels have sought for much of the 19-month-old uprising against the regime of President Bashar Assad. Instead, it often remains a scramble by individual units in the highly fragmented rebel forces to obtain what they can. – Associated Press
Rebels in the Idlib sector previously focused on ambushing convoys and waging pitched battles. But their light weapons forced a tactical shift to indirect assaults, like encirclements, in poorer districts such as Idlib, they said. – Reuters
The World Food Programme (WFP) said on Tuesday it plans to continue providing food for 1.5 million people in Syria until at least June next year, a sign it expects hunger to persist in a protracted civil war. – Reuters
Josh Rogin reports: For several months, the U.S. government has been urging the Iraqi government to stop Iran from supplying arms to the Syrian regime through commercial flights over Iraqi airspace, but a larger amount of supplies is now crossing Iraq via convoys on the ground, Iraq’s exiled Vice President Tariq al-Hashimi told The Cable. – The Cable
James Kirchick writes: The war in Syria has been raging for well over a year. Our enemies are fighting it. Unfortunately, neither candidate has explained why America won’t stand behind its friends. – New York Daily News
Kemal Kilicdaroglu writes: Turkey’s long tradition of secular and open governance, and its relationship with the Syrian people, make it a pre-eminent actor in forging a diplomatic solution for Syria. Bringing more force into an already bloody situation is unlikely to do anything other than continue to tear apart a country already victimized by its dictator. What we need in our region is not another war, but peace. – Wall Street Journal Europe
Lebanon
The Obama administration for the first time backed the Lebanese opposition’s call for a new government to be formed in Beirut, following Friday’s killing of a high-ranking Lebanese intelligence official. – Wall Street Journal (subscription required)
New details about the assassination of a top intelligence official suggested that it might have been an inside job, fueling at least some accusations by political opponents of the Hezbollah-led government that Hezbollah, a militant Shiite group, had played a role in the killing. – Associated Press
Calm returned to the streets of Lebanon’s capital Tuesday, a day after troops launched a major security operation to quell fighting touched off by the assassination of a top anti-Syrian intelligence chief. – Associated Press
Syria’s powerful ally Hezbollah was accused Tuesday by Lebanese political opponents of playing a role in the assassination of a top intelligence officer who used his post to fight Syrian meddling in Lebanon. – Associated Press
Philip Boyes writes: The priority for foreign governments and diplomats must now be to separate the Syrian bloodbath from Lebanon’s militarized inter-factional rivalry. With the U.S. distracted by the Obama-Romney contest and the chimera of an Israeli-Iranian war that may never happen, Europe’s priority should be to focus on the real war in Syria—and the regional unraveling it is threatening to bring about. – Wall Street Journal Europe (subscription required)
North Africa
A court declined on Tuesday to rule on the legality of the committee drafting Egypt’s Constitution, dealing a setback to critics who have called the committee unrepresentative and too heavily dominated by Islamists. – New York Times
Egypt’s prime minister denied a report that he asked Algeria’s government for $2 billion to shore up a struggling economy during an official visit to the country this week, Egypt’s state news agency reported. – Reuters
The leader of radical Islamist group Ansar al-Sharia in Tunisia on Tuesday accused the country’s government of being a puppet of the United States and un-Islamic, urging it to release Salafists jailed after an attack on the U.S. embassy last month. – Reuters
Officials at the White House and State Department were advised two hours after attackers assaulted the U.S. diplomatic mission in Benghazi, Libya, on September 11 that an Islamic militant group had claimed credit for the attack, official emails show. – Reuters
The Libyan army and allied militias have seized control of strategic buildings in the former Gaddafi stronghold of Bani Walid, a military spokesman said on Tuesday, as Libya marked the first anniversary of its “liberation” from Muammar Gaddafi. – Reuters
Eli Lake reports: The post from Ali Ani al-Harzi, who is now suspected of participating in the attacks, was what helped U.S. intelligence locate him and track him down after he fled Libya for Turkey, according to four U.S. officials familiar with the unfolding investigation. – The Daily Beast
Jordan
Jordan’s King Abdullah on Tuesday called on the country’s Islamist opposition to end a boycott of forthcoming parliamentary elections he said would usher in a new era of political reforms. – Reuters
Gulf States
Rising regional political tensions and a flurry of recent cyber attacks have raised fears about the growing use of viruses to target critical national infrastructure in the Middle East. – Financial Times
A local human rights group on Tuesday called on the United Arab Emirates authorities to speed up trials of Islamists detained over alleged threats to state security but dismissed concerns of possible torture and abuse raised by some families and activists – Reuters
Yemen
A U.S.-backed military onslaught may have driven Islamist militants from towns in Yemen they seized last year, but many have regrouped into “sleeper cells” threatening anew the areas they vacated, security officials and analysts say. – Reuters
Israel
Palestinian militants from Gaza fired dozens of rockets and mortar shells into southern Israel overnight and Wednesday morning, critically wounding two foreign workers in an Israeli border community, the Israeli military said. At least three Palestinian militants were killed in Israeli airstrikes as they prepared to launch rockets, according to Palestinian officials. – New York Times
While surveys have indicated that at least two-thirds of Jewish voters in America are likely to support President Obama, the Democratic candidate, limited polling in Israel suggests a reversal of that trend, with two-thirds of American-Israelis saying they intend to vote for the Republican nominee, Mitt Romney. – New York Times
The emir of Qatar on Tuesday became the first head of state to visit the Gaza Strip since Hamas took full control of it in 2007, the latest step in an ambitious campaign by the tiny Persian Gulf nation to leverage its outsize pocketbook in support of Islamists across the region — and one that threatened to widen the rift between rival Palestinian factions. – New York Times
South Asia
Taliban checkpoints have mushroomed on the main roads leading here as the insurgency spreads into Bamiyan—the province selected last year to kick off the U.S.-led coalition’s handover to Afghan security control because it was deemed the country’s safest. – Wall Street Journal
A firefight that raged for an hour between international forces and the Taliban in eastern Afghanistan killed four children who were in the area grazing their sheep and goats, local officials said. – New York Times
Every year, hundreds of Afghans bring mentally ill relatives here rather than to hospitals, rejecting a clinical approach to what many here see as a spiritual deficiency. The treatment meted out at the shrine and a handful of others like it nationwide might be archaic, but the symptoms are often a response to 21st-century warfare: 11 years of nighttime raids, assassinations and suicide bombings. – Washington Post
The latest conspiracy theory to gain traction is the notion that the United States was behind the Taliban attack this month on Malala Yousafzai, the Pakistani student who criticized the extremist group for denying girls access to education. – Washington Post
China
Just over two weeks before a Communist Party leadership change, China began a sweeping shuffle of its military top brass that could elevate the status of the air force and navy and determine the political powers of the country’s presumptive future leader, Xi Jinping, over the next two years. – Wall Street Journal
A quick update on China’s stealth fighter program: Photos newly published on a Chinese Web sites show what might be a third prototype J-20 stealth jet. – Foreign Policy’s Killer Apps
An array of activists, academics and dissidents are questioning the authorities’ purge of Bo Xilai, demanding that China’s legislature follow the rule of law and allow the disgraced leader to defend himself before lawmakers. – Associated Press
A loyal ally of Chinese President Hu Jintao is the front-runner to become propaganda minister during a once-in-a-decade generational leadership change, two sources said, but while media-savvy he is unlikely to drastically loosen tight controls. – Reuters
The subtle dropping of references to late Chinese leader Mao Zedong from two policy statements over the last few weeks serves as one of the most intriguing hints yet that the ruling Communist Party is planning to move in the direction of reform. – Reuters
Yiyi Liu writes: As a number of recent commentaries in Chinese media argue, Beijing cannot afford to drag its feet for much longer on the issue of asset declaration by cadres. Public anger is mounting. The party’s credibility has been damaged by too many scandals. If China’s new leadership has what it takes to launch difficult but necessary reforms, this is where they could make a start. – WSJ’s China Real Time
Lianchao Han writes: Few believed Winston Churchill when he warned of the danger posed by the rise of Nazi Germany. The world preferred to trust Hitler’s declaration that he did not intend to wage a war of aggression. That blind trust led to catastrophe and at least 60 million deaths. On November 7, the American people should elect the candidate who has the better grasp of the realities within China and can shepherd U.S. policies so as to capitalize on those realities. – The Weekly Standard Blog
East Asia
The worries and challenges of workers in this southern Chinese car-making city illustrate the risks Beijing faces as its dispute with Japan over a group of islands drags on. – Wall Street Journal (subscription required)
Japanese companies are increasingly turning toward India for investments, as they look for growth and alternatives to China, where tensions are still running high. – Wall Street Journal (subscription required)
New satellite images show North Korea is repairing a recently excavated tunnel at its atomic detonation site after the passageway was damaged by torrential downpours this year, the Yonhap News Agency reported on Monday. – Global Security Newswire
James Glassman and Amanda Schnetzer write: The only evidence of change policymakers should deem credible is whether the Kim regime is respecting the basic human rights of North Koreans. But as long as they continue to flee through China and make their way to freedom along the new underground railroad, we can tell that the new Kim regime is like the Kim regimes that went before it. The North Korean people need our help. – Shadow Government
Burma
New clashes between Muslims and Buddhists have broken out in volatile western Myanmar, leaving at least two dead and more than a thousand homes burnt to the ground, authorities said. – Associated Press
Russia
The European Parliament has overwhelmingly approved a proposal recommending common visa-restriction regimes and asset freezes to target Russian officials involved in the death of lawyer Sergei Magnitsky. – Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty
The State Department has a message for Russian officials intent on slamming America’s human rights record: “Bring it on!” – The Hill’s Global Affairs
Russia has broadened its definition of treason, in a move prompting fears that state authorities will have a new weapon to clamp down on the press and non-governmental organisations. – Financial Times
Long regarded as Russia’s liberal window to the west, St Petersburg nowadays seems to be the testing ground for a new wave of conservative, Orthodox church-going, pro-Kremlin patriotism that has gripped much of Russian officialdom. – Financial Times
A Russian activist was forced to confess to plotting unrest against the rule of President Vladimir Putin under threats made to his life, rights workers said on Tuesday after visiting the man in a prison once run by the feared Soviet-era KGB. – Reuters
Ariel Cohen writes: By sidelining private and foreign companies, the expanded Rosneft is positioning itself as a monopoly (or a duopoly—if one includes Gazprom). As such, it stifles innovation and keeps operational costs high. Most importantly, the revamped Rosneft provides deep pockets worldwide for Vladimir Putin and his vision of Russia as an energy superpower. – Wall Street Journal (subscription required)
Ukraine
The October 28 elections aren’t Klitschko’s first foray into politics — he twice ran unsuccessfully for mayor of Kyiv — but analysts say this time his campaign increasingly has the feel of a winner. – Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty
There is corruption at every turn in Ukraine: it pervades the police, the courts, the clinics, the parliament and the corridors of power, education and welfare, urban planning and housing. – Reuters
Anders Aslund writes: [Yanukovych] has consolidated power at an amazing speed, but he has done so by steamrolling friends and foe alike. Therefore, his power might be at its zenith, and Ukraine may see a more pluralist system arising once again. – Foreign Policy
Vitali Klitschko writes: The government has failed to secure an election environment free of coercion and intimidation. Still citizens cannot be stopped from taking matters into their own hands. During the Orange Revolution citizen activism was key to guaranteeing the integrity of the vote. It remains so today. – Financial Times
United States of America
Vice presidential candidate Paul Ryan had a ready retort for 44’s “horses and bayonets” zinger at Monday night’s foreign-policy debate. “The ocean hasn’t shrunk,” Ryan said in an interview on CBS’s “This Morning.” “You still have to have enough ships to have the footprint that you need … to keep our strength abroad where it needs to be.” – Hill Tube
Mitt Romney’s campaign is out with a new campaign ad after Monday’s debate attacking 44 over cuts to the military. – Hill Tube
Analysis: Debates are more about scoring points than elucidating problems, just as presidential elections turn more on perceptions of character than on policy promises. But even so, Monday night’s American presidential debate on foreign policy presented a skewed vision of the world, even one defined by American national interests. – New York Times
Josh Rogin reports: Sen. John McCain (R-AZ) suggested Tuesday that 42 is getting more and more active in politics this cycle in preparation for Secretary of State Hillary Clinton to run for the presidency in 2016. – The Cable
Editorial: Mr. Romney wants to unleash the U.S. economy’s animal spirits with less government intervention. But by linking America’s troubles to trade deficits with China, and proposing a heavy-handed government solution, he’d unleash protectionist genies that could haunt his Presidency. – Wall Street Journal (subscription required)
Latin America
Demoralized by their failure to unseat President Hugo Chavez, Venezuela’s opposition hopes to bounce back in December state elections that provide a chance to curb the socialist president’s power. – Reuters
The lessons of October 1962 must not be forgotten. President Kennedy showed fortitude and resolve in forcing the Soviet Union to stand down. Whoever wins the Nov. 6 election ought to deal similarly with today’s intimidation and deception from the Castro regime. – Wall Street Journal (subscription required)
Mali
A military strike to recapture Mali’s Islamist-held north is growing more likely, according to Western powers, regional bodies and the United Nations — a pronounced shift after months of hesitation and hopes that negotiations might end what is now seen as a far-reaching jihadist threat. – New York Times
Europe must help restore security in Mali, hit by an Islamist insurgency in its north, and could lend support through military training to an African-led mission, Germany’s Foreign Minister said on Tuesday. – Reuters
Sudan
A second Sudanese rebel group in the western region of Darfur has agreed to start Qatar-sponsored peace talks with the government in Khartoum, officials said on Tuesday, in the first attempt by mediators to revive a stalled peace process. – Reuters
Southern Africa
The scandal over improvements to Mr. Zuma’s private home could not have come at a worse time for the beleaguered president. – New York Times
Zimbabwe’s Prime Minister Morgan Tavangirai writes: Five years ago, I was a battered prisoner locked away in a police cell. Today, I serve as president of the Movement for Democratic Change and prime minister of a nation on the upswing. We encourage the Zimbabwean diaspora, our partners in the Southern African Development Community, and the international community to take a closer look at Zimbabwe. They might be surprised at what they find. – Wall Street Journal Europe
